Cryptogee without hypothetics!

Noooooo!!! :-)

I think you hit the nail on the head, is that real indicators of a market take into account lots of real world factors. There is going to be heavy rain in the coffee growing countries next year: sell coffee stocks

However with crypto we are trying to second guess the mood of the market, although as you also point out, if a crypto sits at the centre of an actual real world product, then we can use metrics related to that product to try and figure out which way a market will go.

Popular sports person wins big tournament while wearing Nike: buy Nike stocks (grossly oversimplified!!)