Graduating The University Of Dunning-Kruger - Smart Enough To Be Dumb
Socrates once said, the only thing I know, is I know nothing. Upon hearing that for the first time it intrigued me that such a wise philosopher would utter such a statement.
After much pondering and musing, I accepted the notion that Socrates, must have meant that compared to the unending things that there are to know in the universe, he in fact knew nothing.
However it is fairly recently, that I have changed my mind on the statement, two 20th century scientists came up with a psychological study that perhaps sheds some light on those enigmatic words.
John's insisted that this was indeed the best location to build his house.
Knowing How To Know
In 1999 David Dunning and Justin Kruger, released their findings, which showed that in order to properly assess one's own ability, that person had to have a certain level of competence. They discovered that the same mechanisms used to create a correct result, were also the same used to recognise the very same result.
In other words, you have to be competent enough, to realise just how incompetent you are!
This of course creates a serious problem when it comes to self assessment. For instance I have always thought that I had a fairly reasonable idea with where I stood in the intelligence pecking order.
However if I'm not even clever enough to work out how stupid I am; what hope is there for me!?!
Prediction Models
The theory itself says that the other side of the coin is that competent people underestimate their abilities; so maybe I'm doing that?
No, I could just as easily be doing that because I've heard that that's what competent people are supposed to do. So now I'm just pretending to myself that I don't know how competent I am, in order to convince myself that I'm actually very competent.
It would seem that there is no reliable self-administered test I can take, to see if I'm suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect
New Idea New Beginning
The other day I put a fun little fact about Stephen Hawking up on Facebook, and then did an article about it here on Steemit. The responses I got to that post and article, made me realise there was in fact a subjective way to test if you are being objectively incompetent.
I pointed out that Hawking died on the same day as Albert Einstein. I then pointed out that even though it might seem counter-intuitive, it has been proven that it is a 50/50 chance that within any randomly selected group of 23 people, that 2 of them would share a birthday. It just so happens that these two people, are 2 of the greatest minds to have ever lived.
Both my post on Facebook, and on Steemit, had a number of replies that fell into three main categories.
Already knew: These were the people who had heard of the Birthday Problem before, and either commented on such, or gave me some extra info about it.
Didn't Know, yet fascinated: This group of people were unaware of the theorem, and wanted to find out more. They asked questions, put forward their own intuitive estimates they had for two random people having the same birthday, and then when I sent them the links to the evidence, they accepted that they had been wrong.
Didn't know, and refused to accept: This group of people existed both on Facebook and Steemit, whereby they just flat out refused to accept the theorem, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. I realised that whilst not wholly scientific, this last type of response could be a good measure to use in order to work out if I myself am suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect.
The Only Thing I Know, Is I Know Nothing
Being able to keep a balance between having a critical, questioning mind, and taking on board and accepting new ideas, even if they completely change what you once thought, is probably a good indicator, that you don't suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Understanding that your instincts, no matter how strong they are, can be, and in fact, often are; completely wrong. How you deal with that will ultimately give you a good gauge of your own competence.
Prepared to accept that there are people out there more knowledgeable than you and they have discovered stuff you haven't even thought of?
Great, you are competent enough to realise your own incompetence.
Feel that any new idea that doesn't fit into your preconceived notion of the world is complete BS?
If so, the chances are that you'll be sitting there right now calling me out on my bullshit.
There quite literally, is no hope for you . . .
As for me, I now finally believe that I am just about clever enough, to realise just how dumb I really am.
Further reading:
Dunning–Kruger effect: Wiki
Pavel, Samuel R.; Robertson, Michael F.; and Harrison, Bryan T. (2012) **"The Dunning-Kruger Effect<< and SIUC University’s Aviation Students:" Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 6.
Original Study: Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
Note: While researching 'further reading' links, I discovered something else I didn't know. Many people argue that the 'Only thing I know..' saying should not actually be attributed to Plato's Socrates. :-)
Related Musings:
Cryptogee Musings Table Of Contents
Image Citation
WHAT ABOUT YOU GUYS? HOW DO YOU REACT IN THE FACE OF COMPLETELY NEW, EMPIRICALLY BACKED, INFORMATION? ARE YOU MORE LIKELY TO SPEND A LOT OF ENERGY TRYING TO PROVE IT ISN'T EVIDENCE? OR DO YOU TREAT THE SITUATION AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN SOMETHING NEW?
AS EVER, LET ME KNOW BELOW!
uh ... I know this syndrome very well!
In the past, I did research on this subject.
it is also called the superiorite illusion.
I "self-confidence poisoning"
I like your head more.
and among the people it is called "ignorant courage".
Two expert psychologists call this unconscious, the chronic self-assessment inability. Absolutely there are people around you. You will think inside; "How did this man or woman come to this level?"
the employee is incapable of assessing its own capacity and diagnosing its shortcomings. but what is really bad is "inadequacy + not knowing how" cocktail
it creates an irresistible driving force from a professional point of view. an excuse in terms of career, turning into a plus. Believing that his work very well be "insufficient"
he will not feel the slightest inconvenience of being prominent in all things and aspiring to missions.
on the contrary it will see it as a "right". he will know "wakefulness".
In the meantime, people who are genuinely knowledgeable and talented will act "too humble" in their working life. they will be unfair to them. they will not come forward. they will probably be blamed by their superiors for "lack of ambition".
Brilliant, I am a bit harsher and just say Idiot confidence, mainly because they probably upset me with their attitude.
Yes, I like the term 'ignorant courage', it describes it beautifully, but also hints that sometimes you might actually need that!
Cg
It could definitely have benefited a group of humans in the past if someone was willing to run up and stick the first spear in the mammoth
He indeed was a wise man!
Keep this in mind the next time you are about to repeat a rumor or spread gossip.
In ancient Greece (469-399 BC), Socrates was widely lauded for his wisdom.
One day an acquaintance ran up to him excitedly and said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard about Diogenes?"
"Wait a moment," Socrates replied, "Before you tell me I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."
“Triple filter?" asked the acquaintance.
"That's right," Socrates continued, "Before you talk to me about Diogenes let's take a moment to filter what you're going to say. The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"
"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it."
"All right," said Socrates, "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about Diogenes something good?"
"No, on the contrary."
"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something about Diogenes that may be bad, even though you're not certain it's true?"
The man shrugged, a little embarrassed.
Socrates continued, "You may still pass the test though because there is a third filter, the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about Diogenes going to be useful to me?"
"No, not really."
"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither True nor Good nor even Useful, why tell it to me or anyone at all?"
The man was bewildered and ashamed. This is an example of why Socrates was a great philosopher and held in such high esteem.
It also explains why Socrates never found out that Diogenes was shagging his wife.
I can not stop laughing
Kisses
Hahahahaha!!!! Brilliant! I've never heard that one before, good to see you by the way :-)
Cg
Thank you very much, I have not had electric or internet for more than a week. Had a rainstorm and a big old tree fall on the line and took the posts in about 2 km with it. That is one but some families also lost their homes, that is sad.
Is like the weather gets crazier.
Kisses
Oh man, I'm sorry to hear that, I'm glad you are OK. Climate change is real, and it is often in regions like yours that it is felt the most :-(
Cg
Hahaha, chuckled my way through this one...fun thread of thought here!!!
Fun and maddening! :-) It's been pinging around my head for awhile now! :-)
Argentinan tango is my the most relevant personal example which proves that the more I know, the more I know that I know nothing.
Of course, when I was a total beginner, I knew that I know nothing. But after about 10 months, when I have "learned" a solid number of moves and when girls from my (little) school started to like dancing with me, I was feeling pretty self-confident about my "advanced" dancing skills.
That self-confidence made me go to a milonga (tango social dancing night) where I tried dancing with many girls from different schools, with some of the girls being much more advanced than my partners. That night, I found out one interesting fact - I couldn't lead almost anything and the girls didn't like dancing with me.
That made me realize that the girls from my school managed to follow me and liked dancing with me only because we have learned the same combinations of moves in a certain order and they knew me very well, so they could recognize what I want them to do even if I didn't lead very well (or well at all).
There were a couple of additional enlightenments about the level of my tango knowledge/ignorance later, but I don't want to make this comment too long - I might actually a whole musarticle about this.
Cheers! : )
The Dunning-Kruger Effect shows us that people with few skills or knowledge believe that they have more skills and knowledge than they actually have, and vice versa: those who are more competent tend to be undervalued. For what is this?
The basic conclusions of this paper summarize that, for a certain skill or area of knowledge, incompetent individuals:
Therefore, that person who boasts of their vocal abilities, while irritating our ears, is obeying this phenomenon. Or when experts give measured opinions about the problems, while uninformed people believe they have absolute and fast solutions at the same time.
Nice
Well I had not heard of dunning-Kruger, nor the birthday effect. I guess the fact that I am now informed, read this post, and have now filed this information away in my mind as plausable, makes me smart enough to know I am dumb, open to explore these points. Thanks for sharing, I am a bit smarter now and therefore ready to discover how much dumber I really am 😀
Socrates was the wisest man of Athens because he knew that he knew nothing
Very Wise Statement! This is true 'I know Nothing'. I didn't remember clearly that Hawking died on the same day as Albert Einstein died. Both had got some ultra-precious traits.
I'll treat the situation as an opportunity to learn something new lesson in my life. But still I can't learn nothing but 'll keep trying always.
I must say that in this generation majority of people do suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect because most people do all they can to impose their ideas and beliefs on other, regardless of even if their ideas have been proven wrong.
It is said that the empty vessels makes the loudest noise, so I agree with you in the aspect that only the wise and knowledgable ones accept the limitations of the mind and welcome new ideas