STEEM Monthly Charts: 2025 Summer Trends and Seasonal Patterns
According to @coingecko, the August STEEM price closed at $0.130205 and the Labor Day (USA) price closed at $0.127410, so it's time for another update on the monthly and seasonal price movement.
As mentioned before, the Labor Day holiday is the unofficial end of summer in the US, so I've been using Memorial and Labor Day to test the old adage, "Sell in May and go away". Conveniently, Thoth recently discovered the summer post, and it seems that I haven't done any monthly posts after that, so this post will contain new numbers for June, July, and August (plus Labor Day).
As you may recall, the "Sell in May and Go away" adage was 6 for 9 when I posted in June. This summer, the price dropped by $0.01725 from $0.14466 to 0.12741, so the adage scores another win. It now has a 7 and 3 win/loss record. This is also the 4th year in a row with summer declines. On a more optimistic side, the back side of the track, Labor Day to Memorial Day, has gained during 5 years out of 9, so maybe we can hope for a change in direction now.
Here's the table from the June post, updated with yesterday's close.
| Date | Close | Summer Change | Summer Direction | Winter Change | Winter Direction | Holiday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | $0.13 | -$0.02 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2025-05-26 | $0.14 | -$0.02 | Down | Memorial Day | ||
| 2024-09-02 | $0.16 | -$0.12 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2024-05-27 | $0.28 | $0.13 | Up | Memorial Day | ||
| 2023-09-04 | $0.15 | -$0.03 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2023-05-29 | $0.19 | -$0.03 | Down | Memorial Day | ||
| 2022-09-05 | $0.22 | -$0.05 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2022-05-30 | $0.27 | -$0.34 | Down | Memorial Day | ||
| 2021-09-01 | $0.61 | $0.05 | Up | Labor Day | ||
| 2021-05-31 | $0.56 | $0.39 | Up | Memorial Day | ||
| 2020-09-07 | $0.17 | -$0.05 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2020-05-25 | $0.22 | $0.05 | Up | Memorial Day | ||
| 2019-09-02 | $0.17 | -$0.26 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2019-05-27 | $0.43 | -$0.56 | Down | Memorial Day | ||
| 2018-09-03 | $0.99 | -$1.16 | Down | Labor Day | ||
| 2018-05-28 | $2.15 | $0.90 | Up | Memorial Day | ||
| 2017-09-04 | $1.25 | $0.33 | Up | Labor Day | ||
| 2017-05-29 | $0.92 | $0.15 | Up | Memorial Day | ||
| 2016-09-05 | $0.77 | $0.34 | Up | Labor Day | ||
| 2016-05-30 | $0.43 | Memorial Day |
Summary Info:
- Summer Gains / Losses: 3 / 7
- Winter Gains / Losses : 5 / 4
So now, let's move on to the monthly charts.
(Obviously, ignore September of 2025, since it only has one day of data.)
Monthly percentage changes
Monthly price changes (USD)
Monthly closing prices (USD)
Wrap-up
In summary, the price declined during June and August, but gained in July. The July increase wasn't enough to offset the losses, so the summer change also declined.
To date, it appears that the fewest positive months per year stands at 3 (2016 and 2018). In order to beat that, we'd need to see at least 2 of 4 months with gains during the September-December time frame.
The other cliché that I have been watching (just for fun) is, "As goes January, so goes the year." This year, January was down. So, to challenge the adage, we would need the Steem price to rise above $0.25 by the December 31 close. Time will tell.
Bottom line: In my opinion, the STEEM price is still being impacted by elevated inflation that resulted from the February upbit delisting of SBDs and subsequent SBD to STEEM conversions. Inflation rates are down from their extreme highs in Q1, but last time I checked, they were still hovering about a point above the blockchain's base inflation rate. SteemDB is currently unreachable, so I can't get today's numbers (side question: Does anyone know why that site is so reliably unreliable?). As long as SBD conversions continue at scale and the price of STEEM remains below the haircut price, inflation will remain elevated.
Finally
Make your predictions here (just for fun):
- September 30: up or down?
- December 31: Over/under $0.25?
- Memorial Day, 2026: Over/under 0.12741?
Greetings, hitchhiker friend! Great analysis, I'll contribute with my optimism to the discussion with my guesses at the closing questions:
September 30: up or down? Up
December 31: Over/under $0.25? Over
Memorial Day, 2026: Over/under 0.12741? Over
FTR: Here are my guesses at the closing questions:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't STEEM currently cheaper than it has been since late 2017?
So as a STEEM veteran...Is it time to buy, or should I worry that it might drop lower than ever ($.06)?
Yeah, if I'm not mistaken, today was the 2nd lowest monthly close of all time, behind only February of 2017. Out of 3,454 days in the data from CoinGecko, today was the 44th lowest close (bottom 1.2%). I'll probably post updated charts with September's (ugly) numbers this weekend.
I am always hoping for a turnaround, but I am also always worrying about it dropping more, so don't ask me about when to buy. ;-) Personally, for something as risky as crypto, I think the safest strategy is dollar cost averaging.
Two factors that argue for a turnaround are: (1.) inflation has settled down after the February SBD delisting at Upbit, and as a result the daily new STEEM is going downwards again; and (2.) Historically the time period from Labor Day to Memorial Day has gone up more often than down (5 times vs. 4), so there's a small argument in favor of a good stretch for the next 7 months...
But, TBH, STEEM basically moves in parallel to HIVE, so I think the price is mostly influenced by general crypto market factors that have little to do with the Steem ecosystem. I expected the whole market to kick up after control of the SEC changed hands in January, but that didn't happen, so I have no idea what to expect at this point.
I will say that there's probably no better time to get author and curation rewards, because the daily total of new tokens is (almost but not quite certainly) only going to shrink from here, and because competition from other people goes down when prices go down. It's hard to ignore the $ value, but if you measure in STEEM, it's a lot easier to rack up the numbers when prices are low than it is when prices are high.
0.00 SBD,
0.00 STEEM,
0.00 SP