Random market thoughts and some updates
Hello Steemians! It has been a while since my last post. I was busy with some stuff so I apologize for my inactivity. Anyway, I will like to share a few random thoughts on the crypto markets followed by some updates of the few initiatives I am working on.
My thoughts on the cryptocurrency market
Bitcoin ETF
There have been many chatters about the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF and many people are excited about it. Some are even predicting how the price movement might be once the ETF is approved and launched. Drawing comparison to the Gold ETF in the past, a picture (attached below) comparing Gold and BTC prices is being circulated on the internet.
The first gold ETF was launched in 2003, at that time gold price was about $450 per ounce. Following the ETF launch, gold had a bull run till 2011, reaching a price of more than $2000 per ounce, which was a more than 300% gain. Hence, many people are hopeful that a Bitcoin ETF will propel BTC price to a new high, in the range of $30k or even $50k.
I am personally not so hopeful. I think fundamentally, Bitcoin and gold are different. It was really difficult for common folks to invest in physical gold prior to the launch of the ETF. Therefore, the gold ETF was really a game changer for the industry. Compared to gold, it is so much easier for common people to invest in Bitcoin. We can buy it with credit cards at really small amount and it doesn't require a physical space to store. So, in my opinion, an ETF will bring Bitcoin price up, but I do not think it will start a long bull run and trigger another parabolic price movement.
Adoption is still key
For cryptocurrencies to be taken seriously, adoption is still the most important. That is why I am very excited to read these 2 pieces of news today.
First news: New Starbucks partnership with Microsoft allows customers to pay for Frappuccinos with bitcoin
The Seattle-based coffee giant is working with Microsoft and a leading global exchange on a new digital platform that will allow consumers to use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Starbucks.
Starbucks along with Intercontinental Exchange, Microsoft and BCG, among others, is working to launch a new company called Bakkt that will enable consumers and institutions to buy, sell, store and spend cryptocurrencies on the global network by November. The platform with convert bitcoin and other cryptocoins into U.S. dollars that can be used to buy a Cold Foam Cascara Cold Brew, Matcha Lemonade or anything else at Starbucks.
Second news: Coinbase Brings Crypto Payment Option to Millions of Online Merchants
Coinbase Commerce, a cryptocurrency payment provider, has announced a series of initiatives to support crypto commerce, including a WooCommerce plugin to give millions of merchants the option to accept cryptocurrencies, the ability to send bitcoin and litecoin directly, and other new capabilities. Coinbase believes the improved access will support adoption of cryptocurrency and a more open financial system.
These news to me are even much better than a Bitcoin ETF. These are concrete evidence that adoption of the cryptocurrencies is growing. Now when people ask you, what can you do with your Bitcoin? You might struggle to provide an answer. But not too long in the future, you will be able to proudly say, I bought this cup of Starbucks Frappuncino with my Bitcoin 😎. Words will spread and by that time, it might be a cool thing to use Bitcoin for purchases. It is this kind of gradual adoption which will bring a sustainable and smooth price increase.
Updates on initiatives
Steem Oracle Project
I think I have lazed around enough and it is time to get back to work, haha.. As previously mentioned, the 2nd experiment will be on cryptocurrency price prediction. I have decided on the format and it is going to be like this. Each prediction is to predict the price movement of a cryptocurrency 5 days later. There will be 3 options for each prediction,
- Price will be 10% higher
- Price will be 10% lower
- Price will be within 10% range
When each contest post is added, the name of the cryptocurrency and the price at that point in time will be included. Participants will have 24 hours to submit their predictions. The rewards will also be changed, I am still thinking about it and will provide some updates later.
Byteball to Steem conversion service
Till date, I have helped 8 Steemians converted a total of 1.398 Gbyte worth of Byteballs. The service is still running and if you are interested, do check out this post on how you can easily convert your Byteballs to Steem using my service 😉.
Culgin's Game
I launched "Culgin's Game" some time last week and the puzzle was solved rather quickly. The 2nd game will be launched next week and there will be 2 SBI shares of reward as well. So stay tuned! This time it will not be that easy anymore 😛.
Thanks everyone for reading! Let me know your thoughts on the current crypto market and also the initiatives that I am running.
Projects/Services I am working on:
You can find me in these communities:
I just wonder how ETFs are going to handle the price difference between exchanges.. There is no single price for bitcoin, if you look on different exchanges they are all off by a few dollars to a few hundred dollars. My understanding is the ETF got denied because of no single price ticker can be accurate right now.
We see this alot on altcoin markets, prices can differ alot across exchanges.
For physically backed ETFs, I think the fund managers will be buying from a few major exchanges to even out the prices. I am not very sure about that, but certainly, there will be ways. And you are right, the prices across different exchanges can be very different. I believe there are trading bots out there that are constantly trying to capture these arbitrage opportunities.
@culgin
They probably will, like the top 5 exchanges. But the SEC denied the ETF in the US on that premise.
I agree with you. Adoption is key. People are still skeptical about cryptocurrency now, but when more businesses start to accept cryptocurrency, people will begin to have faith in cryptocurrency. Hopefully, Steem will be one of those that are widely accepted.
Great initiatives you have going. Wishing you all the success with them.
Cheers!
Overall I am still bullish on STEEM. It's a very versatile platform and I foresee many businesses having a Steem account in the future, just like they have a Facebook page. By then, I think there will be businesses that will accept Steem as one of the payment methods
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Yes, STEEM has this advantage over the other cryptocurrencies. Cheers!
Np, bro. You know, everybody has a life besides Steemit, well, at least should have, I guess.
There is a lot to be said about this gold-btc "correlation" but I will keep it short and sweet, as always. Btc will go up and the ETFs generally will help.
And yes, you can see similarities in these charts - as I told everyone before; btc is (kind of) the digital gold (and no, I was and am not the first person who claimed that). (;
And yes again, btc is a lot faster than gold. So will its bull run.
30k and 50k$ presumably will be exceeded but I do not want this to happen in 2018. Such a fast bull run wouldn't be good for crypto - we have less than four months left to gain more than 20/40k$ (for 30 respectively 50k$)? 2019 would be a way better time for that.
I hope and believe that we will stay around/bit under the 20k$ area by around the end of the year.
However, I generally agree with your article brother. (;
Good work, once again.
Regarding the upcoming Steem Oracle Project, sounds interesting but pretty dumb/primitive as well, somehow, too simple haha - but probably I'm just too tired right now because I can't think of an other respectively better) option/pattern or it really is the only smart and possible way to use for such a project.
At this current moment, I'd say it will stay within the 10% range.
Thanks bro! I fully agree with your statement that a fast bull run is not good for cryptocurrencies. I also will like a gradual and sustainable upward price movement through the year 2019.
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Yes, most definitely! But it is crypto, so I don't expect that to happen.
Nice post. Seeing the side by side reminds me about the moon. Lol.
Great analysis with regards to comparison of Gold/Bitcoin ETF price movements, I predict we will indeed follow a similar path as gold down post-ETF.
Thanks for the post.
Thanks for the comment. I do hope so. But I still think a sustainable and gradual upward price movement will be better for the market. And an ETF will not be able to provide that
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To buy my SB coffee using bitcoin (hopefully steem) would be the best thing that will happen to the crypto world ☕🍩🍪
Indeed! Will also like to be able to buy coffee with STEEM too. Haha..
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@culgin more articles will be?