RE: Bitcoin TA - summary of analysts - 11. Feb 18
@famunger You have an ERROR referring to last week’s close number. Tone stated was $8200 not $7,625! I don’t know if Tone Vays gave you that summary of his YouTube video or you didn’t watch it all, because that summary is far apart from his statements like: In his week candle view, he used phrases like “this is looking bad” and “this is turning bearish”, indicating this week needs to close tonight above last week’s close of $8,200 as closing above last week’s low of $7.625 is not enough to offset bearish signs. In the daily candle view, he said this candle could get very ugly… In the 4hour, he said “we have a problem” with 50 moving average broken down. Etc. He noted the unconvincingly low volume. He criticized those claiming that BTC hovering around $8,000s was good and stated that signaled going lower because it was happening after having risen higher instead of coming from lower. He said he no longer considers $7,600 a strong resistance and stated that if we drop $500 more (from $8,000 at time of video), the only hope for some support would be at $7,000 because then there would be a 90% probability the $6,000 will not hold this time.
Now, wouldn’t that bring us towards @philakonecrypto ‘s correction target $4,800 to $5,200. I’ve fallowed these Top 5 BTC analysts in Steemit and this guy, newest addition to your excellent pack, has been incredibly accurate.
Then, we see members complaining to @Haejin that he switched his wedge drawing to his current version only a few days ago, IMAGINING a breakout. I don’t know if he switched them or not, but it is a fact there are other complaining and coinciding replies, including textbook bearishness and not making sense with his own charts.
I’m sorry to bring up of negative news but there they were.
Hi @cryptodog - thank you for being so active and trying to help that we have most accurate numbers in this overview. That is highly appreciated.
I do have all my information from analyzing the posts / videos of the analysts. I watch videos with focus of the essential jumping the introduction and other non btc related infos. That is necessary as creating this post daily consumes already a lot of time - that said it might lead to me missing some information.
But coming back to Tone - I just rechecked. He said that we get a problem if we close below last weeks low and that is 7'625. In his video at 5:45. I did not mention that he meant above last weeks low so I am going to add that.
I am not saying he is bullish yet (see also table) but he was yesterday very happy with weeks candle (looked like a hammer) and turned today to a doji which is stated is still ok as long as the two prerequisites are met.
Your other comments I think we are just coming from different angles. Yes he mentioned several "dark clouds" but to me he is in the mode of looking for confirmation if the bottom is in or not. And I thought I stated several of the things you commented mentioning daily is becoming a problem and that we should recover faster and need a close over 9'400.
That is always a problem of an overview - it loses in comparison to the original.
What would you like to see so that things are more precise?
Regarding analysts precision I am trying to evaluate if they are right or wrong. So far I have no great metric to be honest. Only so far: i have tried to monitor their targets they are mentioning and which I add into my table. And the hit rate is very similar with all analysts so far. But that said - phil made much more calls which were intraday - those calls not fitting my daily overview well as they are already history when I do my post )so never become a target in my table). And also some analyst make more long term calls which seem to me more difficult (at least they are something completely different). So at the end it is very difficult to judge.
But as I said due to my tables and the blue marking of changes you see how often an analyst is changing his targets. It is up to you how you judge that.