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RE: SegWit “Locked-In:” Bitcoin’s Bigger Blocks Only An Activation Away!
Alright so, following the hard fork in November there is a possibility of another chain split resulting with a similar alternate chain that does not support the 2 MB increase?
Also, what does the activation on the 21st mean exactly? Just that the network consensus support for BIP141 has surpasses a specific percentage?
Is the hard fork a scheduled event, meaning after block X the protocol is updated with the non-BIP141 exclusion rule?
Sorry for the delayed response. It's not a possibility, it is definitely happening. There will be SegWit + 1MB (Bitcoin Core), SegWit2X and Bitcoin Cash.
The activation of BIP141 requires a lock-in period (2016 blocks) of which 95% are SegWit blocks, and another 2016 blocks for activation, which doesn't require anything and is there as a "buffer" period so that businesses and pools can upgrade their software in time before it activates. Activation is projected to happen on 21st August and SegWit will be running on the Bitcoin mainnet then. Since SegWit has locked in already, we are past the point of no return.
Yes, the 2MB hard fork has been scheduled to occur on block 494784, estimated in November.