Substratum and WaBi will likely fail to have long-term success in China

Substratum and WaBi are likely to fail in China. Both projects propose to offer new and exciting technology to one the world's largest markets. Substratum claims to have developed a staking technology that would allow users located in China unfettered access to the internet. WaBi has demonstrated technology that seeks to ensure a safe supply chain for products sold in China. Both technologies could see massive adoption if the Chinese government allows them to operate. That is a giant if and ultimately why I think they will fail.

Substratum is the least likely to succeed out of the two. This is because Substratum's CEO doesn't seem to have a clue what his product is up against.

Check out his post on telegram:

For those of you who do not know, China has created a giant internal internet. This internet has its own facebook, twitter, snapchat, and tinder. Of course, not these exact apps but the Chinese versions of them. They are allowed to operate because they are all located in China and have submitted to the will of the government. To reach the outside internet you have to scale the Great Firewall of China. To do so, it requires a VPN. These VPNs operate with a wink and a nod from the government. The government can slow them or shut them down at will.

The government has taken these steps for its own purposes which I will not expand on. Substratum seeks to subvert the purposes of the government by providing access to the entire internet without a VPN. Now there was a time where it was possible for Substratum to fly under the radar. There is precedent for that strategy. The VPNs are an example of technology that is allowed to operate as long as they don't cause any issues. There is also another known method which I will not mention here because I don't wish to shed too much light on a technology currently operating under the radar.

Due to the idiotic behavior of Substratum's CEO it is not likely that Substratum will be allowed to survive. As you can see from the above post, the CEO is thumbing his nose at China's government. He is arrogantly proclaiming that it will work in China on a major social media outlet. So much for mums the word. However, he goes much further than that by posting a message from somebody that claims to represent the DOD. Yes, that is right. He is posting a message insinuating his willingness to work with the DOD to subvert the wishes of the Chinese government. OVAH. It is over.

The only thing that can save Substratum's ambition to operate in China is the technology. On that front, Substratum has not produced a publicly verified product nor has it provided the code as it said it would. So nobody really knows how good or bad the technology really is. Even if the technology is amazing, China will have Substratum in its cross hairs. Does anyone doubt the technological prowess of the Chinese government when it comes to controlling the internet? They are probably the most advanced country in that aspect. So even if the technology provides a roadblock to the government, how long will it stand up against a constant and ever increasingly sophisticated attack?

Now on to WaBi. First of all, I want to say that I love this technology. I also love that they have actually demonstrated the technology. The technology itself will probably see massive adoption within China. It is a godsend and truly needed.

China has had countless issues with fake and tampered with goods being sold to the public. This has not only led to harm to those that purchased the goods but also to a wholesale mistrust of the system that has been entrusted to provide safe goods. I myself have purchased fake Captain Morgan's Rum. You can imagine how pissed I was when I wanted to get my drink on and it tasted like fingernail polish. So here comes WaBi with the perfect solution.

After everything I said, why on earth wouldn't WaBi succeed? Well.....that is due to the owners not being Chinese. China loves new technology and has done a great job adopting cutting edge technology in real time. Recently, China has succeeded in producing a lot of its own new technology. For example, it is on the forefront of camera drone technology. However, most of the technology it has obtained has come from foreign companies. It has done this through many different methods which I will not expand on.

The method that is applicable to WaBi is when China invites a business to operate inside the country only later forcing it out after taking the technology for its own. This was recently showcased with the introduction of Uber into China. Uber began to see mass adoption until China's homegrown competitor Didi gained significant market share. Soon after the emergence of Didi, Uber was shown the door. Now, Uber did not leave empty handed. Uber was given a parting gift of ownership in Didi.

What this means for WaBi is that it will probably allowed to operate within China until China has produced a homegrown competitor. At that point, WaBi will be shown the door with or without a parting gift. Having said all of that, WaBi is playing all of its cards correctly. This is in direct contrast to Substratum's knuckle headed CEO. WaBi has hired Chinese workers and nuzzled up to powerful players inside of China. In the short term, WaBi will likely see success within that market.

I want to end by pointing out what I didn't say in this post. I didn't talk about price. The price of SUB or WaBi may go to the moon for all I know. I also didn't say that I wanted them to fail. I would love to see both technologies succeed. I wish all the people involved in the products success. I also didn't say that the technology would fail outside of China. It could very well be the case that they see massive success elsewhere.

Finally, I would just like to say thank you for reading this post if you made it this far. I hope I provided something of value. I would love to read your comments below.