True Mortality Rate of Covid-19

written by @ajain and @rgov - astute political observers

Covid-19 or as is commonly called ‘Coronavirus’ is a matter of grave concern across the globe. While is has impacted almost all countries across the world, there are some that have been impacted much more. USA, Spain, Italy, Germany and France account for more than 62.39% of the total cases in the world (as of 9th April, 2020 GMT 8.02). And within this 62.39% USA accounts for 45.85%. So what is it that an average person is worried about. There are two fundamental questions that worry an average person. First, what is the level of mortality the nations may see. Second, what are the total number of cases likely to go up to across nations. In this article we take a look at the first question, the mortality that nations may see.

There are a various ways mortality rate of Covid-19 can be calculated and depending on which method you zero-in, you will have a very different view of the severity of this virus and hence the required preparations. I am convinced that once you look at the numbers, you will likely be more cautious and be more serious about maintaining social distancing.

One popular way that is being touted in mainstream media is the total number of deaths divided by total number of cases. But there is a more realistic method and in this article we shall explore that method.

For the purpose of this article I am taking all the data from “worldometer” (source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). Data as on 4/8/2020 for the world is:

• Total number of cases: 1,450,086
• Total number of deaths: 83,466
• Total number of recovered: 309,319
  So as per mainstream media the mortality rate, total number of deaths divided by total number of cases, is 5.75% (83,466/1,450,086).

Now let’s look an alternate view. Premise of this view is that every case will have an outcome and there are only two outcomes – either the patient will recover or the patient will die. So the true mortality rate is total number of deaths divided by total outcome. Outcome, as mentioned earlier, is the sum of total number of deaths and total number of recovered cases.
So as per this calculation the mortality rate is 19.7% (83,466/ (83,466+309,319)). This is a significantly higher number and warrants more stringent adherence to guidelines and measures to prevent the spread of this disease.

Given in the table below is the country wise data with these two methods of mortality rate for you to draw your own conclusions. Please note that different countries are on a different point of this spread growth curve and countries which are on step 1 or step 2 of the growth curve, such as India, may experience an exponential increase in the number of cases translating to a much higher number of expected deaths. Please also note the stagnation of deaths in China. This is because China has already passed the peak (step 3) and is well into decline mode (step 4) – as per official data from China. Countries such as the USA are currently in step 3 and are experiencing exponential growth.

In the next article, I shall provide a perspective on why this virus is so dangerous.
In the meantime, stay safe!