Is there still room for Bitcoin to fall
The price trend of Bitcoin is influenced by a variety of factors,including market sentiment,macroeconomic environment,technical analysis,and regulatory policies.From the current market situation,it appears that Bitcoin does have some room for further decline,but there are also uncertainties.Here is a detailed analysis:
Factors Supporting a Decline in Bitcoin
Market Sentiment and Weakening Demand:Currently,sentiment towards Bitcoin is quite negative.Bitcoin has already fallen by 13%in 2025 and has dropped 25%from its peak on January 20th.Moreover,the Bitcoin futures market is also showing signs of weakening demand,which could lead to further declines in Bitcoin's price.
Technical Analysis Indicators:According to CryptoQuant,Bitcoin's MVRV ratio Z-score is below its 365-day moving average,indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum has weakened.Historically,such a situation has often been associated with more significant corrections or the beginning of a bear market.Additionally,if Bitcoin breaks below the key support level of80,000,it could potentially fall further into the range of70,000.
Macroeconomic and Market Environment:The global macroeconomic uncertainties and the weakness of the U.S.stock market have also had a negative impact on Bitcoin's price.Concerns about economic recession and global tensions could exacerbate the bearish pressure in the crypto market.
Funding Flows and Liquidity Issues:The founder of CryptoQuant has pointed out that liquidity in the Bitcoin market is drying up,with new capital inflows stagnating.This is seen as a bearish signal for Bitcoin's price.
Factors Limiting Bitcoin's Decline
Key Support Levels:Despite the potential for a decline,Bitcoin has a key support level around80,000.If it can hold this support level,Bitcoin may continue to trade within the current range.
Long-term Investor Confidence:Some long-term investors still remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future,believing that its price is likely to recover in the long term.For example,Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has predicted that Bitcoin's price could reach1.5 million by 2030.
Potential Market Rebound:If Bitcoin can break above the monthly open price of84,600,it could trigger further gains,which would offset some of the downside risks.
Conclusion
Overall,Bitcoin does appear to have some room for further decline,especially given the current negative market sentiment,uncertain macroeconomic environment,and weakening technical indicators.However,Bitcoin's price trajectory is influenced by a complex interplay of factors,and its future remains uncertain.Investors should closely monitor market developments and changes in technical indicators when making investment decisions.