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RE: Root Cause Analysis, Bid Bots, and OCDB
This is a great analogy to consider as it explains how behavior can ultimately be influenced by the considerations of risk and reward. The interesting part is that the weights and probabilities assigned are often based off of incomplete assumptions which can make black swan events like the iceberg morenlossible than thought.
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The industry I worked in had some data of how often certain scenarios happened. It's also hard to say that something could happen once a year when you're plant has ran for 50 years and it has only happened once for those 1 off events. Not to say it's perfect, but it's an educated guess. Luckily, most companies I've worked for so far if it breaks an environmental or safety regulations you either shut down or designed it out.