If the market went up 30% and then crashed 50% we would be back to where we were when Trump was elected and everybody said the market would crash. So how can you doubt the people that say the market always goes up when your best case scenario isn't even that bad. Say you invested $1000 in the index ETF SPY when Trump was elected because every blog and news article in the world online said the market would crash. Right now, you would be at $1,200. You just said that a stock market crash was imminent, after a 30% or so gain. So another 30% will put you at $1560. Now you say the market will crash 50% so you will be at $780. So you would be down only 28%. And after your so called market crash, what would happen next? Obviously, you would have to go up because if you didn't go up, you would've said the crash would of been 60% or 80%. So, you only need to go up another 28% to break even. And that is the worst case scenario. What if the market went up another 1200% like it did in the 90's? Then you would be at $15,600. But, what if the market crashed then, 50%? You would then be at $7,800. Not too bad. But say you put money in today and the market goes up 10% from today until it crashes 30%. We would still only be where everybody said the market would crash before. Unfortunately, people started predicting market crashes so often after the Great Recession that they actually predicted the market would crash during the Recession and called it a double dip recession. Since their double dip prediction, the market has gone up 300%. So if somebody invested when everybody was screaming double dip recession, say $1000. They would be up $3000 and be at $4000. So what kind of crash would they need to lose money? They would need a crash of 75%. So this is why the people that say the market always goes up are always right.