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     7 years ago 

    The overall tendency is very important, it's not that II entirely disregard the allover scenario, expecting to either rise or fall - this is the context I'm operating in and that enables me to relativize.
    This is what bots DON'T do...
    As an example, I made some profits yesterday entirely on BTC (no need to jump from coin to coin, that only makes it confusing and I do have a life and can only concentrate on one thing at a time) and I sold my btc at 15300, having bought at 14762 (I bought the other half at 12500 a few days ago, hodling that) - however I bought again at 14500, expecting another rise towards 15000 which never happened, so got out again at just above 14100 realizing this would go down way more... and this morning it had fallen to 13300. Now I'm a bit undecided if I should buy at the current 13+-, expecting a fall down to 9.5 k or so...
    but also expecting a rise to 17 k hopefully this coming week - why bother, it's Christmas after all and this sort of thing can be a bit ennervating in the long run ;)
    If you look at the one hour chart, you will find we've been forming another little head and shoulders... and if you measure that it leads downwards to about 10500 depending on the exact way you measure the distance, and so i tend to expect what the Fibonnacci retracement says about the entire correction so far, measured from the September low (see attached).
    In a word, I'm trying to get intuitive at this, which is what always worked best for me. In that sense, it seems to work best on the graphic level, as in charts rather than numbers, or geometry rather than arithmetics. This is why I cannot give a definitive answer to the percentage question.
    In the end, it's your decision where you draw the line between fear and greed ;)