Capitulation isn't wanted, nor needed, but it's highly probable.

The reasons aren't that complex.
TA does not work in itself, but it does work because the majority of money is invested based on TA. Everybody is looking at the same charts, making the same calculations and basing their investment behaviour on them. You're essentially predicting what other people are predicting based off the same charts.

Think of it this way. If there's a chance of 50% on a roulette table of it going up or down, and one person declares that he has found a pattern in historical charts that show that based on some indicators it is 1% more likely to go down. All things being equal, even without proof of this actually being the case, it makes more sense to put your money on black. In this way it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it will result in a slightly larger amount of people following this theory than not. As a result the chances of going down actually occur. This strengthens the theory more, bringing more people to follow this TA, making it even more true.

Now consider that there is NO reason for a break-out to occur at the end of triangles, other than humans deciding that the end of a triangle is an indicator of some sort which makes one result more probable than the other. This is entirely based off of historical patterns. Once this pattern has entered the hive mind of investors new patterns will emerge and be detected. Eventually you end up with a giant mess of indicators like we have now that make no actual sense and contain no true logic. But since everybody is abiding by these made-up rules and are trying to out-win everybody else, they are 'making the pattern come true' so to speak.

Since a large part of big money uses TA and likes to play a near-zero-risk game, they do not act unless they feel the risk as as low as possible.
As long as you still have a large part of people believing the TA doesn't match up yet - you're simply missing part of the herd. And the entire herd is what is needed to move the charts. In other words, we need to go down to convince the bears that it's time to stop being bearish and turn bullish

And lastly, speculators are being driven out of the market. People who do not understand bitcoin and more importantly, people who are weak hands. Weak hands are prey for big money. And if you scare them enough you can take their money. This is what billionaires do. George Soros almost made the UK economy crash entirely in the 90's by secretly buying up billions worth of UK bonds and dumping them at a crucial moment in the market, causing a spree of panic-selling and making him a billion dollars in a day at the expense of panic-sellers. The same is going on in Bitcoin. It has been my suspicion that this is why the OTC market is so big.. You buy there, to eventually dump on the exchanges and crash the price. The lower you drive the price, the more people will panic-sell and capitulate. You can do this to the absolute bottom, to the point where nobody even wants to touch it anymore. While $3K seemed a nice bottom, I feel like the spirits will be truly crushed if we go even lower. Every last single seller needs to be out of the market, simply because there WILL be somebody who is greedy enough to make this power-move.

It's all a game of bluff. Much like that oldschool 'Game of Chicken' game where two cars drive toward eachother until one chickens out. When the bottom is in all the chickens will be gone and only the people willing to drive themselves into a wall, or those who don't care anymore because they already lost so much, will be left. At that point there is no-one to take money from left in the market. No way to go but up.

Nobody wants to crash and have a deep bottom. But it's just how psychology and 'the market' works...
Those who play the game well end up with more dollars or more bitcoin, kind of like a giant game of wash-trading bubble after bubble. Those who don't will get shaken out and leave with losses. Once you really grasp the kind of game it is, the HODL mentality and indeed the whole reasoning behind the post from which it originated become clear. It's simple: The game is rigged unless you have enough money to manipulate. If you're trying to go head on and out-smart them by timing the market you will fail and get rekt. The only way to win is to not play their game.. You simple forego the fomo and fud and go long term and hodl. If you know it's going up then that's the only way to truly beat the game. Just HODL, and when it goes down big time you DCA and BTFD. There is so much truth in these memes!