“It’s too late for Bitcoin”.... Or so people keep telling me
Chatting heads
I’ve been to a number of social gatherings recently and almost inevitably the subject of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency comes up. On more than one occasion I’ve heard the same phase rattled out:
It’s too late for Bitcoin
I’ve heard it enough times that I know immediately what the reference is to. It’s a feeling that it’s too late to invest in Bitcoin because the price has already hit astronomically levels. Thus the “It’s too late for Bitcoin” rhetoric is often followed by other sound bites like:
You had to have got into Bitcoin early, there is no point getting involved now.
Some go further…
It’s a ponzi scheme… what generated out of thin air? It’s created out of nothing how can it have value?
Part-time Experts
At this point I do not bother arguing. On the contrary. I’ve been involved in cryptocurrency for four years now however I’m still open to being wrong about Cryptocurrency. Maybe the people I’m meeting have an insight into the space that I have missed. So I ask;
You sound knowledgeable; you must have done a fair bit of research into Bitcoin?
To which without fail they become squirmish. It turns out they only have limited exposure to Cryptocurrency. Then I suggest:
Maybe your view of Bitcoin is more down to a lack of understanding of what it is than anything else?
The conversation usually dies off at that point.
Cannot convince the un-convincible
I’ve given up explaining that bitcoin and blockchain technology is potentially a disruptive technology etc… and as such no-one can accurately determine it’s true valuation. The fact is I have no real interest in convincing people that they should buy Bitcoin.
If you're are not using Bitcoin or don't see it's investment potential, you shouldn’t buy it, simple.
However if you haven't bothered to look into Bitcoin and cryptocurrency beyond mainstream headlines and news-bites; by all means have an opinion however don't expect people who have taken the time to understand it to take you seriously.
No-one has ever been knowingly 'early'
It is easy to disengage with trying to understand Bitcoin when the valuation appears uncomfortably high. However the fact is however there has never been a comfortable time to buy bitcoin. There has never been a time that was universally seen as “early” to buy bitcoin.
I remember when Bitcoin first came to my attention in late 2013. The price had hit $1000. It then dropped substantially from that high. After the Mt Gox collapse in February 2014, the price fell to around $200 at one point. With hindsight everyone should have ploughed into Bitcoin. However the sentiment at the time was the opposite. It felt as if it was too late for Bitcoin. It felt like the biggest risk in the world. I know of many 'real' early investors that left the scene after the Mt Gox collapsed; at the time they thought they got out too late and at the time such a view was completely understandable. It genuinely felt like Bitcoin might end up a failed experiment due to the failure of it’s biggest (by far) Exchange.
Divergence makes Markets
Right now the Bitcoin experiment is as alive and vibrant as it has ever been. The wider Cryptocurrency experiment even more so. However it there isn’t a Cryptocurrency where you’d get uniform agreement that ‘now’ is the right time. It is the nature of the free market that there is a divergence of opinion. Else you wouldn’t have sellers, only buyers (or vice versa).
Just tell should I invest dammit!
So is it too late to buy Bitcoin?
I believe the answer is more nuanced. For some there was never the right time to buy Bitcoin. It was (and is) way too speculative for them to put money into. They will only understand Bitcoin if or when it has already disrupted the status quo. At that point it will likely be less about ‘investing’ and more about using Bitcoin (or some other Cryptocurrency) in their day-to-day life. In much the same way as most people that use Google or Amazon haven’t invested a penny in it. That is absolutely fine. Not everyone needs to be an investor; even if the opportunity is open to all.
For others, there is never a wrong time to buy Bitcoin. They see the potential of Bitcoin now and will not stop investing until either the potential is realised or the experiment fails.
Then you have people that fit in the shade of grey between those two extremes, with there being a myriad of reason why people in the middle invest in (or speculate on) Bitcoin.
Wherever you sit and whatever you think the outcome may be; know that one this is true. This is just the beginning of the journey. I for one will be enjoying the journey; probably as much if not more than reaching the final destination.
Right, I have a lot of similar conversations. People think in terms of only investment/stocks, or don't understand how the technology works. Often they have never managed their own longterm finances or don't concern themselves with economic trends.
It's difficult to initiate a legitimate exchange if there is poor info or one side is lacking information - and that goes for me too. I try to go to events and learn from people that are better informed than I am about particular aspects of how Bitcoin works and the infrastructure is developing.
I like to ask people "how much is the internet worth"?
Of course they have no idea. Then I mention that Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) are nothing more than networks, like the Internet.
Do you think the Internet was made out of nothing and is a ponzi scheme?
25 years ago, people thought that....look at what they missed out on.
But you are right, it is foolish to try and convince the unconvincable.
So true. If the internet had a financial incentive structure baked into it's protocol, it would be impossible to imagine just how much it would be worth today.
Since you have a lot of experience in the crypto sector, I wonder if you have already shared your thoughts about which are the most promising cryptos out there?
Where do you think steem will be in a couple of years?
I ask this, simply because I am interested in reading from people who have a lot of experience.
Cheers man!
I don't know which coins are the most promising however In do believe that this year and next will be the ones where cryptocurrencies will need to start delivering usable products to remain relevant; particularly after the cash injection of last year.
In this regards, Steem is in good standing.
However I could be wrong and we could see a few more years of speculation and rollercoaster valuations!
I've yet to actually invest in any crypto apart from the Steem I've earned here. I'm not sure I will as I'm pretty risk averse. I would need to spend time researching which I don't have time to do at the moment.
I'm learning a lot by being here though so maybe I'll learn enough to take the plunge.
This is a key point of your article I think. I found it very helpful.
No-one has ever been knowingly 'early'
We're are living in the zoomed-in part of the graph. In the future with more data we will be looking at the zoomed-out graph and be like "ahhhh growth is all relative"
Very true. It is crazy how much store is being placed on the activities of the last 12 months. Only in another 10 or 20 years will we likely see its true significance.
It's too late for low prices!! Lol
I actually got into the crypto space mid last year pretty late but never impossible to partake.
I believe the possibilities in the cryptosphere is enormous and thus, affords everyone the opportunity to hold some stake notwithstanding the time.
It is never late however for anyone.
Apparently, less than 10% of the world' populace have a stake of crypto
That's something I'm sick of hearing.Bitcoin increases? Does the sub-coins gain value? Should we invest? Sufficient!! it's pointless for people to see it as a profit.Of course, we can invest, but it's never meant to make money.These cryptos don't own one.We're the only one who owns it.We should use these instead of paper money.it was a revolution like the lydians.We must know the value.
Thank you @nanzo-scoop
In my opinion, I don't think it's too late to invest in Bitcoin. You can never tell where the price will hit tomorrow.
But if you still has doubts, there are other potential big coins. Electroneum, Litecoin etc. INVEST!!!
Agreed there are definitely coins that offer potentially better ROI however they often come with even greater risk.
in my opion i think its not too late to invest cos now is the time at which bitcoin can be bought with relative ease. Cryptocurencies fluctuates most times,and thats what makes investment into it interesting. cryptocurrency incestment is not for fragile minds. looking at the history like you@nanzo-scoop have brought out in this post, it is evident that even though bitcoin was to fall to as low as 200$ per bitcoin it doesnt still imply its end . a fall in bitcoin to me only signal a good e to invest.