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Yes that is correct. The trend has been down and this is either a pause before a continuation downwards or it is a trend reversal. The breakout from the sideways action will likely be very telling.

If it would be a trend reversal, we would see the two lines get closer to each other... But there isn't enough momentum yet. To get more momentum to climb up, the exchange rate needs to go lower, or there needs to be a positive event to build the momentum.

Yep, and there are several potential catalysts in the wings. IE Bakkt launching and/or a bitcoin ETF, among others.