BTC/USD Update : Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis
Market Update
It is August 27th, 2018! BTC dominance is currently at 53.3% (-0.4%). Total market cap is currently at $218 billion (+ $5.3 billion). The volume of last 24h was $10.1 billion (+ $0.8 bilion).
We saw decrease in BTC dominance and increase in total market cap! The alts increased in price while BTC is still ranging in area between 6600 and 6700.
Here you are very good recap on the crypto market made by Cointelegraph: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=347&v=rMLrHI2MXTY
But, this recap is just for informational purpose! Do not trade based on this because it is obviously what they are trying to make! Not only ETF, but other news too! Why is the title of this article " The chances of and ETF hapenning are 100% "? Because it is going to happen but the question is when! They are now reviewing rejected applications but chances for changing their decision is almost zero.
In the near future, the only chance for getting an ETF has application filled by VanEck and crypto startup Solidx .
The decision about this application will be published on September 30th and it is very easy to calculate that we have almost 5 weeks until that date! It is very hard to keep hype alive for even week or 2! To expect to see uptrend from this point that will last 4-5 weeks because of an ETF is not realistic!
The hype may start around September 10th-15th! I do not expect anytime sooner! The purpose of all these positive news is to create bullish sentiment, to lower the number of shorts, to increase number of longs, to create double pressure and with one single news to crash BTC to 6k area again!
The technical analysis
Weekly chart :
It shows us rejection from important EMAs and mid bollinger band! Why these lines are important?
The majority of trading softwares (bots) are using these lines because for them it is very easy to calculate them and make strategy based on their value! If bots are against you, it will be very hard to beat them!
On the other side, all 3 bands are pointing down so downward mometum is currently active! To invalidate this, we need to see close above mid bollinger band or to see visit of low bollinger band and rejection at that level! One of these 2 things will happen for sure, the question is which one!
On the weekly chart, 5k area doesnt look impossible at all and of we see next weekly candle opening around this price or lower, the lower bollinger band can enter 4k area! So, if we do not see some major events and news, BTC can easily reach 4k area but because of all these potentially big bullish news, I do not think it will spend there too mcuh time!
Daily chart:
It got rejected 3 times by top bollinger band so downward momentum is still active!
Hourly chart:
It is struggling to make upward momentum so our short signal is still active!
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