Is there seasonality with Bitcoin?

You may be surprised by the answer.

There certainly does seem to be many patterns that play out with bitcoin. These are most likely related to the block reward halving cycles.

However, there are also some other patterns that seem to be a little more seasonal in nature...

One example is how bitcoin tends to do well at the end of the year and struggle in the beginning of the year, possibly related to holidays.

I stumbled upon something very interesting as it relates to seasonality and Bitcoin...

It appears August may set the bar for the rest of the year.

Looking back at past trading data, when bitcoin does well in August, it tends to bode well for the rest of the year as well.

When it does poorly in August, that tends to foreshadow what it does the rest of the year as well.

Check it out:

(Source: https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1154438657429921792)

When bitcoin is positive for the month of August, it tends to also have a positive return from August through December.

When bitcoin is negative for the month of August, it tends to have a negative return from August through December.

Interesting right?

What is even more interesting is the fact that this kind of seasonal pattern doesn't seem to hold true for any other month.

Which means...

We need to watch the returns in August to get an idea what the rest of the year might hold!

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc