Do News Make the Market or does the Market make the News? You'll be surprised!

SUMMARY

Elliott Wave analysis states that a news or an event shall arrive to justify the forecast and not the reverse.

What truly moves the market? Sentiment. What is sentiment? Fear and Greed....an unmistaken aspect of duality.

There is another famous saying: "What are words, but symbols of symbols, hence; twice removed from reality." Thus if words are used to describe our feelings, emotions or state of mood or state of mind, then it is a twice removed reflection of thought which is cyclical. Technical Analysis attempts to measure the cyclical nature of thoughts. Just because TA tools are twice removed from reality does not mean they are useless. They actually have surprising level of superior accuracy than fundamental analysis of news and events.

A cynic would say that Technical Analysis is near perfect only in measuring the past. True but they are also misinformed. An accomplished artist in any endeavor always stands out by their evidence of performance. The population of Technical Analysts is no different than our current wealth spectrum. We have the many poor which is equivalent to near always wrong Technical Analysts, there is the middle class or equivlent to good but not great TAs and the very wealthy, the top 0.01% who just stand out, and these would be similar to the near perfect Technincal Analysis Gurus. They are the Mozarts of TA, a rare gem of talent. These giants of Technical Analysis like WD Gann, R.N. Elliott, John Magee and Robert D Edwards left their legacies so we students can also aspire. They taught and evidenced that TA is an art and allows a high degree of accurate forecasting.

Many think that fundamental news drive price direction. Or events such as an upgraded mining algorithm, higher levels of adoption, government intervention or a myriad of other "reasons" cause prices to either rise or fall. I disagree. I believe that news and events are the results of sentiment. Sentiment does not follow the news and events but rather the news and events follow sentiment. Therefore, greater accuracy lies in first measuring sentiment. Elliott Waves and Technical Chart Pattern Recognition is designed to do exactly this: Measure the ebs and flows of sentiment.

Elliott Waves, in the hands of a seasoned practitioner, can help discern how sentiment might lead prices. This is what I mean by Elliott Waves allowing us to take a peak around the corner. It CAN NOT BE PERFECT as at the end of the day, EW still only charts the reflection of sentiment, but since sentiment leads fundamentals, its forecasts are closer and more accurate than fundamental analysis.

Here is a link that exemplfies and dissects the question: Does the Federal Reserve Lead the Interest Rates or Follow it?
https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Do-Interest-Rates-follow-the-Federal-Reserve-or-do-interest-rates-lead-and-the-fed-follows

Please review these Tutorials on Laddering! and Buy/Sell Setups!

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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**