Dear valerybelan,
Firstly, thx for your post my friend.
Secondly, you are absolutely right that there are way too much people in it who do not know anything bout it (or too little) - probably that is one of the reasons why it is working quite good for many others.
And Warren Buffett said, that cryptos will come to a bad end, but he admitted that he does not know a lot about it, and people who have nearly no knowledge about this game should not talk about it (just like in every subject; better be quiet if you do not know what it is). Warren is boss in stocks but definitely not in crypto.
Bill Gates has bit more clue and you might check out tnt (longterm coin).
Thirdly, you are right, the market is volatile af., but it is not impossible to predict. I predicted quite often the right things. Although I was never a 100% sure, but how should I. No one knows what is happening in the future.
Um,... and I really do not want to show off or anything like that, but til now I was quite good concerning 'predictions' of this correction.
Nevertheless, there are enough actions you cannot predict but if you know market cycles and stuff (ta in general) then it is not that difficult to say where it is going (as long as the whole world does not prohibit coins...).

To sum it up; I like your post and you are very right with most of it but imo you can "easily" increase your chances of winning if you do a lot of research. Regulations and stuff will be interesting - right now it is quite enjoyable (USA has the most strict ones, I guess?).

Yours truly,
Gandalf The White

PS: In a bullish market every person is a boss trader. The good ones will be revealed when the bearish crypto winter starts; I am excited for that. Hodlers will suffer and so on...
PPS: I am not a finance advisor but quite experienced with stocks and crypto - posting my opinion bout it and my trading plan.