Tone Vays Notes

Evening

• 4:37 On the monthly chart, If current declining trend line should repeat the previous declining trend line from 2014, then it should last until Aug'19, it's very over extended but it's possible.
• 5:33 In 2014 Bitcoin broke 30-month moving average and traded in between 30 and 50-month moving averages for 10 months. Twice it broke below the 50-month moving average on a intra month basis but never closed below it. Same could easily happen again, we could be breaking the 30-month moving average around Oct'18, Nov'18 or even Dec'18. Fibonacci 0.764, 30-month moving average and Sep'17 peak at $4,975 are all creating a strong support. First thing, we need to get to $5,000 area and then we can assess if we can hold it.
• 9:22 We're close to losing SAR and price is getting close to the lower Bollinger Band. This is looking Bearish.
• 10:17 We're back at $6,240 area on a daily and it looks like a complete disaster.
• 11:00 We have a second lowest opening this year on the weekly candles. Death Cross played a big number on Bitcoin.
• 19:46 Bitcoin looks very similar to Silver. When silver broke below the Market Structure it quickly lost 50% of it's value.
• 23:23 Daily chart is in the middle of nowhere and 1 to 4 countdown correction is coming to an end. It looks bad.
• 24:02 12h chart was in conflict with the daily chart and it looks like it won, it has finished it's 1 to 4 candle correction.
• 25:44 On 4h chart the longs are disappearing, people haven't got much confidence.

Morning

• 39:44 It would be nice to get to the top of triangle at $7,500 on the Weekly but it's going to be hard.
• 40:13 On the daily I expected a 1 to 4 candle Dead Cat bounce to take us to $7,000 vicinity but there was a big drop couple days ago. 12h chart was in conflict with daily and the price was exhausted. We bottomed at the 8th candle, then had reversal 9th with a bit of upside but this 1 to 4 is now coming to an end. Unless we break above $6,500 on a 12h candle close basis that could get us to $7,000 we are ready to go back down.