Looking at things today, this analysis is likely wrong unless we have a fast pull-back. I was also over-thinking the CME group news.

How many people know that the CME group is likely to generate low volume for bitcoin? Just me. I am the only one who thought that far ahead.

The cryptocurrency market is not this intelligent. It works off news short-term and then figures out fundamentals later. Bitcoin cash is a good example of not caring about fundamentals, I think.