Dollar Weakness Continues, Bitcoin Stabilizes

The weakness of the dollar and rising open interest in futures are driving the cryptocurrency higher, as investors bet on a rebound.

The price of Bitcoin closed this Friday up 3.53%, reaching $83.983, driven by the weakness of the dollar and improved prospects for the passage of a US spending bill that would avert a government shutdown. Additionally, open interest in Bitcoin futures increased 5.05%, reaching $49.54 billion, as the options market bets on further gains. However, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $771.3 million, albeit at a slower pace than the previous week.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a bullish engulfing candle, surpassing the weekly high and reaching a high price of $85,309 / Tradingview

Bitcoin Benefits from Dollar Weakness

The price of Bitcoin benefited from the fall in the dollar, which traded moderately lower due to expectations that the US Congress would pass a spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. This scenario generated optimism in the markets, which translated into a boost for risk assets, including the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Consumer Sentiment at Lows: What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 57.9 points in March 2025, its lowest level since November 2022. This figure, which was well below the forecast of 63.1 points, reflects growing pessimism among consumers, driven by uncertainty surrounding economic policies and persistent inflation. Weak consumer sentiment could pressure the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider its monetary policy, further weakening the dollar and benefiting assets like Bitcoin.

Open Interest in Futures: A Sign of New Entrants

Open interest in Bitcoin futures rose 5.05% in the last 24 hours, reaching $49.54 trillion, its highest level in a week. This increase suggests the entry of new market participants, which could signal a shift in sentiment after the low prices recorded since January. On the other hand, open interest in Bitcoin options stood at $32.57 trillion, with 63.91% of call positions (bets on the upside) versus 36.09% of put positions (bets on the downside).

Bitcoin ETF: Net Outflows, But at a Slower Pace

Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $771.3 million through Thursday, although partial data for Friday showed net inflows. Despite the outflows, the pace slowed significantly compared to the previous week, which could indicate a stabilization in this market.

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance

On the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a bullish engulfing candle, surpassing the weekly high and reaching a high of $85,309. However, the cryptocurrency continues to face dynamic resistance imposed by the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA200), located at $85,600. Although trading volume was below the 25-day average, the formation of a second bullish engulfing candle suggests a possible increase in demand in the coming days.

Bitcoin's rally this Friday reflects a shift in market sentiment, driven by a weaker dollar and rising open interest in futures. However, the cryptocurrency still faces key resistance, such as the EMA200 at $85,600, which could limit its short-term gains. Investors should monitor the Fed's decisions and key economic indicators to determine the market's direction in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile assets, and it is recommended to conduct your own research before investing.