Bitcoin on Hold Due to Market Suspense

The price of Bitcoin remains in a critical zone as investors evaluate key economic data and expectations for the Fed's monetary policy.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $87,232, up slightly by 0.37% over the past 24 hours, but remains trapped in a sideways range between two key moving averages: the EMA50 ($88,800) and the EMA200. This behavior reflects investor caution in the face of a mixed macroeconomic scenario, in which a resilient US labor market and slowing economic growth generate uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's next moves.

Major resistance: $88,800 (EMA50), a level that has rejected several breakout attempts. / TradingView

Market Keys: Factors Influencing the Price of Bitcoin

Economic Growth and Employment: Towards a "Soft Landing"?
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 2.4% in the last quarter, slightly exceeding expectations (2.3%), but slowing from the previous 3.1%. Meanwhile, weekly Initial Jobless Claims remained at 224,000, confirming the strength of the labor market.

This data reinforces the narrative of a "soft landing" for the economy, but also reduces expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed. In this context, Bitcoin acts as a safe haven asset in the face of uncertainty, although its upward momentum is limited by the lower probability of more flexible monetary policy in the short term.

Bitcoin in a Decisive Zone

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces two key scenarios:

• Key resistance: $88,800 (EMA50), a level that has repelled several breakout attempts.
• Critical support: $76,600, the last solid base before a possible deeper correction.

Furthermore, spot trading volume fell to $5.67 billion, the lowest level since early March, indicating a lack of market conviction. The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also shows a negative balance of $51.71 million, signaling greater selling pressure than buying pressure.

Institutional Demand and Accumulation

Despite the sideways movement, there are positive long-term signs:

• Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $89.6 million the previous day.
• BTC reserves on exchanges decreased by 4,536 coins in one day, suggesting accumulation.
• The options market shows increased interest in bullish positions (63.62% calls vs. 36.38% puts).

Likely Scenarios for Bitcoin

1. Continuation of the Sideways Range (60% Probability)
   Bitcoin could continue trading between $76,600 and $88,800 until a new catalyst breaks the market's indecision.

2. Bullish Breakout Toward $95,000 (30% Probability)
   An increase in spot volume (above $8 billion) and sustained inflows into ETFs could fuel a new rally.

3. Correction to $76,600 or Below (10% Probability)
   If selling pressure increases and the CVD becomes more negative, Bitcoin could test lower support.

Bitcoin at an Inflection Point

The cryptocurrency market is in a wait-and-see mode, with a bearish bias in the short term, but bullish fundamentals in the longer term. Upcoming macroeconomic data, especially those related to inflation and employment, along with comments from the Fed, will determine Bitcoin's next significant move.

Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets; it is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.