Bitcoin Falls Due to Tariff War and Labor Market

A resilient labor market and political uncertainty are dampening the cryptocurrency's momentum, while the MVRV-Z score suggests a long-term buying opportunity.

The Bitcoin price fell 3.07% this Thursday, closing at $81,113, affected by a stronger-than-expected US labor market and uncertainty generated by the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Despite weaker producer inflation (PPI) data, the market's focus remained on macroeconomic risks, while the MVRV-Z score indicates that Bitcoin is in an undervalued zone, which could represent a long-term accumulation opportunity.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin was rejected by the dynamic resistance imposed by the 200-period exponential moving average, located at $85,600 / Tradingview

Bitcoin Under Pressure: Labor Market and Tariffs Hit the Price

The Bitcoin price registered a significant drop of 3.07%, closing at $81,113, amid a complex macroeconomic scenario. The US labor market showed resilience, with unemployment claims at 220,000, below the expected 225,000. This figure, coupled with the uncertainty generated by Donald Trump's 200% tariffs on European products, kept investors cautious.

Producer Inflation: A Weak Data Point Ignored by the Market

Although the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in weaker than expected, the market ignored this data, focusing on the strength of the labor sector and trade tensions. Investors believe inflation is under control, but attention remains on the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high, strengthening the dollar and weakening risky assets like Bitcoin.

Trump and the Fed: A Battle Impacting the Markets

President Donald Trump continues to intensify his rhetoric on tariffs, generating uncertainty in traditional and crypto markets. Furthermore, its strategy to trigger a recession and force the Fed to cut interest rates has led to a surge in 10-year bond yields, which rose 1.07% to 4.27%. However, these yields are still below the Fed's benchmark rate, which remains at 4.50%.

Bitcoin in Undervaluation Zone: Buying Opportunity?

The MVRV-Z Score, a key indicator for assessing whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, is currently at -1.28, suggesting that the cryptocurrency is in an undervaluation zone. Historically, negative values ​​on this indicator have coincided with periods of accumulation, which could represent a long-term buying opportunity.

Key Support and Resistance

On the daily chart, Bitcoin was rejected by the dynamic resistance imposed by the 200-period exponential moving average, located at $85,600. Immediate support lies at $80,000, a key psychological level. If the price falls below this level, it could seek support at $78,400, a critical level that, if lost, could trigger a long-term bearish scenario.

Trading volume remained low for the second consecutive day, suggesting that sellers have not been strong enough to drive a steeper decline. Furthermore, Bitcoin remains oversold, which could help keep the price in its current range.

As Bitcoin faces macroeconomic and technical pressures, the MVRV-Z Score suggests that the cryptocurrency could be in an accumulation phase, representing an opportunity for long-term investors. However, in the short term, the price could remain volatile, with resistance at $85,600 and support at $80,000. The Fed's next moves and Trump's policy decisions will be key in determining the market's direction.

Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile assets, and it is recommended to conduct your own research before investing.