Bitcoin Faces the $105,000 Barrier

After five weeks of unstoppable growth and a 10% weekly increase, the leading cryptocurrency is hitting a crucial wall that could trigger a correction or open the door to a new epic rally. What will the market decide?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical inflection point, facing key resistance at $105,000 on the weekly chart, a level that could determine its medium-term trajectory. The market-leading cryptocurrency closed the week with a solid 10.44% gain, driven by optimism generated by trade agreements between the United States, the United Kingdom, and China, amid the prolonged tariff war. However, after five consecutive weeks of gains, signs of a possible market overheating are evident.

Bitcoin stopped right at a significant resistance zone that, historically, has acted as a ceiling for its price / TradingView

The resistance that halted the bullish momentum

Bitcoin stopped just inside a significant resistance zone that has historically acted as a ceiling for its price. This level coincides with a potential overbought zone, as the current price is 27% above its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). Furthermore, despite the price's expansionary phase, there is a decrease in trading volume in the spot market, which could indicate a decline in buyer conviction at these levels. However, open interest (OI) continues to rise, reaching its highest level since January 21, standing at $68.56 billion, suggesting increasing capital participation in the derivatives market.

A Historic Wall on the Path to New Highs

The key resistance at $105,000 has already demonstrated its strength by rejecting the Bitcoin price on two previous occasions: initially in December 2024 and then in January 2025. These rejections preceded a significant correction that extended until the end of March, where the price found support at the 50 EMA before initiating the current rebound. This resistance level stands as a considerable obstacle before Bitcoin can aspire to reach new all-time highs.

Imminent Correction or Next Rally to $120,000?

Given this scenario, the probability of a correction before continuing its upward path is considered high. The confluence of key resistance, potential overbought conditions, and reduced spot volume suggest that momentum could be losing steam in the short term. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through this $105,000 barrier with conviction, it could trigger a powerful new bullish rally with the goal of reaching $120,000. The key will be to observe the price's reaction to this critical level and the behavior of trading volume and open interest in the coming days.

Bitcoin is at a crucial crossroads, struggling to overcome historic resistance at $105,000 after an impressive bullish run. The battle between buyers and sellers at this level will define the next price move. A successful breakout could open the door to significant gains, while a rejection could trigger a healthy correction before a possible follow-up attempt. Investors should proceed with caution and pay close attention to market signals to anticipate the outcome of this important battle.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading is highly volatile and carries significant risks, including the total loss of invested capital. Consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.