RE: Why Bitcoin Could Reach $23,000 Soon
It's an interesting theory, but I disagree. The reason for my disagreement is based largely on BCH. We all know that Coinbase is one of the largest, people-friendly places to buy Crypto. For a long time, when people got a Coinbase account, They would see three cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. As you say, 'Reality was lost a long time ago, Perception is all that matters.
However, now people will get a Coinbase account and also see Bitcoin Cash. Immediately, they will think "well, what's the difference?" They'll start to look into it, and realize that Crypto is so much bigger than Coinbase. From there they will see other options, and huge gains compared to Bitcoin (probably via CoinMarketCap) and want to try their hand elsewhere.
I honestly believe that average investors are being forced to be a little more intelligent about their 'investments' than before, and therefore they will shift away from Bitcoin much faster than before. I can see Bitcoin hitting 40-45% Dominance, but it's going to fall, and continue to fall.
That being said, I will still keep at least 25% of my portfolio in Bitcoin, because as you said, it's seen as the 'safest' crypto to invest in.
Thanks for the great content, cheers
Thank you for the comment abiotic. I have no doubt there will be confusion, but what do you think the default is going to be when they see:
I don't think many people will mistakingly go for Bitcoin Cash. I think most people who get Bitcoin Cash will be because they genuinely believe it is better or because they think it has higher potential for returns (which partially goes along with what you said, but not fully as Bitcoin obviously has proven much higher returns in long-run since it actually has a long-run).
Of course they will see Bitcoin first. Bitcoin is first. But I think that the confusion that will come from seeing Bitcoin Cash second will result in people wanting to research.
If people see Apple and Apple cash (Apple Cash as an example) they would think "WTF, What's the difference?" Once they investigate the difference, they'll decide it's worth the extra ten minutes (In their inexperienced minds) to research the next largest crypto. Whether that's Bitcoin Cash (because it's second on Coinbase), Ethereum (because it's the next listed crypto that isn't "Bitcoin") or Ripple (because of CoinMarketCap), They will begin their exposure to alternatives to Bitcoin.
I have a feeling that Reddit will begin to play a larger part in this ecosystem as time goes on, mostly because it is a very active community. Especially because, as everyone knows, this is a very overbought, overhyped market.
I have a feeling that the confusion that will be brought on by Bitcoin Cash will have a very bullish (in the long term) effect for Altcoins.
My question for you is; if people look as CoinMarketCap and see 250% gains on Tron, with 5% on Bitcoin, what are people going to impulsively start doing? Personally, I think that we are still in the early stages, and because of that, Altcoins are going to continue to gain relative to bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin is not going to go away. I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin hit $500,000,000 market cap. But it is my estimation that bitcoin does not hit 50% again until there is massive mainstream (read ill-informed) adoption of Crypto.
You don't account for the fact that a lot of these news outlets are saying BTC is in a bubble, not the crypto market is in a bubble. So when new entrants discover all these other currencies that they aren't being told are in a bubble, they see more of an opportunity.