​​🔍 Data-Driven Value Picks for July 22 – Real Edge, Real Profit 💰📊

​​🔍 Data-Driven Value Picks for July 22** – Real Edge, Real Profit 💰📊

These aren't guesses — they're sharp bets backed by math, not hype. Welcome to the new era of smart betting.**

🏟 EuroBasket Qualifier – Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Cyprus
📌 Bet: Cyprus ML
📈 Model Probability: 5.45%
📉 Odds: 26.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 3.8%
📊 Value Edge: +1.6% (≈ +41.8% overvalue)
Cyprus is a massive underdog, but Bosnia’s shaky form gives them a puncher’s chance beyond the odds.

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🏟 Tennis (ITF W25 Mohammedia) – Celine Simunyu vs Carolina Kuhl
📌 Bet: Simunyu ML
📈 Model Probability: 28.85%
📉 Odds: 4.50
🧮 Implied Probability: 22.2%
📊 Value Edge: +6.7%
Kuhl has lost 9 of her last 10 matches — Simunyu has a stronger shot than the market reflects.

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🏟 Copa do Brasil – Bahia vs Retrô (PE)
📌 Bet: Retrô PE ML
📈 Model Probability: 6.82%
📉 Odds: 19.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 5.3%
📊 Value Edge: +1.6% (≈ +29.5%)
Retrô's compact defense gives them a real upset path even as heavy dogs.

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🏟 Tennis (ITF W60 Luan) – Yilin Zheng vs Ying Zhang
📌 Bet: Zheng ML
📈 Model Probability: 10.71%
📉 Odds: 12.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 8.3%
📊 Value Edge: +2.4%
Zheng is unheralded but Zhang’s inconsistency boosts the underdog’s upside.

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🏟 Tennis (ITF M25 Denia) – Carles Cordoba vs Javier Barranco
📌 Bet: Cordoba ML
📈 Model Probability: 10.71%
📉 Odds: 12.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 8.3%
📊 Value Edge: +2.4%
Barranco is favored, but Cordoba has pulled off similar upsets — value is there.

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🏟 Copa do Brasil – Cruzeiro vs CRB
📌 Bet: CRB ML
📈 Model Probability: 8.33%
📉 Odds: 15.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 6.7%
📊 Value Edge: +1.7%
CRB’s counterattack gives them a real, if small, shot — more than the market allows.

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🏟 FFA Cup (Australia) – Heidelberg Utd vs Weston Workers
📌 Bet: Weston Workers ML
📈 Model Probability: 6.35%
📉 Odds: 19.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 5.3%
📊 Value Edge: +1.1%
Heidelberg has lineup issues — Weston have enough to justify a flyer.

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🏟 WNBA – Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury
📌 Bet: Over 160.5 Total Points
📈 Model Probability: 56%
📉 Odds: 1.91
🧮 Implied Probability: 52.4%
📊 Value Edge: +3.6%
Both teams can score and play up-tempo — model sees this going over more often than not.

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🏟 UEFA Women’s Euro Semifinal – Spain vs Germany
📌 Bet: Spain ML
📈 Model Probability: ~75%
📉 Odds: 1.48
🧮 Implied Probability: 67.6%
📊 Value Edge: +7.4%
Spain are dominant across the board and expected to control the match.

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🏟 WNBA – Minnesota Lynx vs Chicago Sky
📌 Bet: Lynx ML
📈 Model Probability: 88.24%
📉 Odds: 1.14
🧮 Implied Probability: 87.7%
📊 Value Edge: +0.5%
Even at short odds, Minnesota’s home dominance makes this slightly +EV.

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