Automation - A boon or a threat?
Humanoid robots have been a dream ever since we got lazy to do things. That dream is very close to reality now, as now a we have functional robot who is the citizen of this world, in Saudi Arabia.
Meet Sophia, an artificial intelligence powered gynoid, who now already has the same power as anyone woman in Saudi Arabia. Well, I guess it's not much to begin with.
But in this article, I would mainly like to focus on how did we got here. This innovation, though it is in our time, still seems so futuristic! There have been several movies on robots like Blade Runner, Terminator, I, Robot and countless more (Baymax being the best of all, hands down).
Back in 50 AD, a Greek Mathematician Hero of Alexandria dreamt of automation, penned down an idea of a machine Automata, a description of machines which enable wonders in temples by mechanical or pneumatic means (e.g. automatic opening or closing of temple doors, statues that pour wine, etc.). Yes that’s what lazy people do, find a better way to drink their beer.
Da Vinci too made a robot of his own which could stand, sit, raise his visor and also for some reason had an anatomically correct jaw. Not quite sure why that was important. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Then came Eric, a British robot built in 1928 during the First World War. At one event's opening, Eric rose to his feet, bowed and gave a four-minute opening address, but this was controlled by 2 people.
Well I know what everyone’s thinking right now “I too have made a robot during my engineering project.” Well, so have I. So do a million people every year! But I assure you, it was harder back then.
We have been having robots since so many generations, what makes Sophia so special? She is an artificial intelligence enabled robot, which allows itself (herself?) to learn over time about the surroundings and not just to serve us for industrial use but also be used for consumer use where every household can have a robot that learns about them over time, and helps them with entertain you, and help learn things.
But just like any other family, Sophia is the successful one among the 7 other siblings who did not get citizenships yet. Yeah, they all hate her.
And get this, in her family 2 of her brothers have Albert Einstein's head. You must be special if you are better than 2 of your brothers who have Einstein’s head. Nonetheless, it was initial step towards Her (the movie) becoming a reality.
This is what humans do. We are smartly lazy. We have been inventing tools, for making our jobs easier, to make time for us to do something else. We went from 1700s where everyone had to be in agriculture to survive, to now, no one having to make food and yet we still have abundance. These are mechanical muscles. Strong, reliable and never get tired. This way we can use our time to make cat videos, or write this post. This is how our standard of living rose over the years.
However, now our minds have become free and become engineers who program mechanical minds! But just as human labour became less in demand through mechanical labours, same way, mechanical minds are going to replace all the human minds in demand. Think about it, the we are no competition to mechanical minds, because they too are strong, reliable and never get tired. This is how economy works, and standard of living rise.
It is soon going to be a huge problem, if we are not prepared for this thing to come. And we are definitely not prepared.
You must be wondering what do you have to do with it. You are here in India, and I’m sure you think these robots won’t be coming to your country any soon. Guess what. They’re already here! Not to help you, but to help your employer, by replacing you. Yes, the IT industry employs nearly four million Indians and rakes in revenues of more than $150 billion, according to the trade body National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom). Last May an unprecedented number of people were asked to serve their notice and leave the job. "Companies are unwilling to talk about the layoffs or how many techies have been served notice to leave as part of their annual appraisal," J.S.R. Prasad, chairman of the National Confederation of Unions of IT Employees. Source - First Post
Furthermore, it is believed that a 14% decline of jobs will be seen by the year 2021, which would lead about 4,80,000 jobs! This is a figure just in IT industry. The world bank data states, and I shit you not, 69% of today’s jobs in India are threatened by automation. Source - World Bank
We have been seeing signs of it, but I believe we are all cats drinking the milk. We close our eyes and ignore the problem and we hope that the problem would ignore us too.
The Regional Human Development Report UN says (highlighted in the image below) the number of Indians in working age has increased by 300 million from 1991 to 2013 whilst the jobs in the country have increased only by 140 million. In China had an increase of 241 million people and the jobs increased by 144 million. The report says “A wider gap in India than China suggests a more limited capacity to generate employment—a serious challenge given the continued expansion of the workforce in India over the next 35 years”
And furthermore, the prediction by Bloomberg is that India’s working-age population is expected to expand to 18.6% of the global labour force by 2027, up from 18% this year.
It is a very scary picture right now, but what can be done about this?
Infact let’s see what government is doing to be prepared for this?
We found through the PwC India report on their growth in Indian Industry states that the government is encouraging them to use automation to improve their productivity.
But the government says there is no reason why India should be scared of unemployment, as automation won’t affect Indian jobs.
The Minister of State for finance Arjun Ram Meghwal says that the UN report "inter alia also states that 'even if technologically feasible, large-scale net job destruction due to automation should not be a concern for most developing countries in the short term' ".
"The government is also of a similar view," Meghwal said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha.
But what about the other reports? Are we really going to ignore all the other indications and go with a phrase which is convenient to them?
Meghwal said the government has taken various steps for generating employment like encouraging the private sector, fast tracking various projects involving substantial investment and increasing public expenditure on schemes like PM's Employment Generation Programme, MGNREGS, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana, Deen Dayal Antyodaya Yojana and National Urban Livelihoods Mission.
Let’s have a look at the statistics of how well these schemes have turned out -
“What is required for jobs to get created? First, you need to get investment or you have a MGNREGA kind of programme. But the choice of this government is to create jobs through manufacturing activities and startups etc, which is a little more exciting. So while there have been some initiatives from this government, I don’t think it has actually borne fruit...The data shows that private enterprise has not been enthused sufficiently to invest to create the jobs required.”
-Mahesh Vyas, CEO & MD, CMIE
The reason why government is not doing much about it, is because people don’t fear that the automation is going to take over the jobs. "About 87 per cent of those surveyed view automation as a positive impact on their current work situation with 78 per cent stating confidence in their future job prospects," according to Michael Page India's 'India Automation' report.
Despite market reports of the fear around automation taking over jobs, a majority of the professionals surveyed were optimistic about retaining their employment. Source - Economic Times
So what is the solution? What will people do if there are no jobs to do? What will a world like that be?
A post on myth fighter has given a very interesting take on it -
These posts told why increasingly, thinking machines will replace human labor, and why the thrust of economics must change from “full employment” to optimum employment – the situation in which people will be required to work less and have the opportunity to live more, while machines do more work.
In “How would you make disemployment work?” I suggested these preliminary steps for our Monetarily Sovereign government:
- Legally reduce the traditional 40 hour workweek to 30 hours and less.
- Prevent hunger for lack of money. The government could provide for everyone’s basic food supplies by paying grocery stores to offer free milk, meat, fish and vegetables.
- Provide healthcare for everyone. The government could pay for 100% healthcare for everyone of all ages.
- Keep people from suffering homelessness. The government to pay for home mortgages at a minimum level (Rather than “minimum wage,” we could have “minimum home mortgage,” where people could add dollars for more expensive homes. Or “minimum rent,” something akin to the government paying for hotel stays).
- Just as today we provide free education, grades 1-12, the government should provide free college and advanced degree education to everyone. Knowledge should become a necessity more than a luxury.
- Begin with government-paid-for local, public transportation, then expand this by paying airlines and railroads for free national public transportation.
This all might seem very interesting and very appealing, but is it possible in India in the coming 35 years?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.