📈 Apple's Second Half of 2025: A Double Game Under the Tariff Storm
⚙️ 1. Tariff Crisis: Supply Chain Restructuring and Cost Pressure
Tariff Impact:
The punitive tariffs on tech hardware imposed in early 2025 will significantly increase Apple's production costs. If the full impact is passed on to consumers, flagship phone prices may break psychological barriers, dampening demand. If the impact is absorbed internally, gross profit margins could fall from 38% to below 35%, eroding profits.
Supply Chain Migration Progress:
Apple has pledged an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing over the next four years, bringing the total to $600 billion, with a focus on localizing core components such as semiconductors and glass. This move is expected to partially mitigate tariff risks and secure exemptions.28 However, a complete supply chain restructuring will take at least three years, and Apple will continue to rely on Asian production capacity in the short term, creating significant cost pressures.
🧠 II. AI Technology Breakthroughs: A Key Catalyst for the Replacement Cycle
Apple Intelligence Commercialization:
Hardware Integration: The new generation of iPhones will deeply integrate AI features (such as visual tools and Siri + Chat GPT), aiming to activate a "super replacement cycle" and increasing sales to 240 million units in 2025.
Service Ecosystem: AI will drive service revenue growth, with subscription penetration expected to rise from 15% to 25%-30%, becoming a high-margin incremental source of revenue.
AI PC and Tablet Market Opportunities:
The AI PC market is expected to grow by 165% in 2025. Leveraging its position as the fourth-largest PC manufacturer and its iPad ecosystem advantages, Apple is poised to capture an incremental market share of 114 million units, offsetting weak mobile phone sales.
📱 III. Product Cycle and Competitive Landscape
New Phone Releases and Demand Forecasts:
iPhone 17 Series: The focus of the September launch event, with upgraded AI features as its biggest selling point. If the pricing strategy successfully balances costs and demand, it is expected to reverse the 6% year-on-year decline in shipments in the first half of the year.
Non-mobile phone categories: iPad and MacBook price cuts and promotions are stimulating short-term sales, but the long-term impact of AI features on demand for high-end models remains to be seen.
Intensifying competitive pressure:
Samsung is seizing the high-end market with its decentralized supply chain; emerging brands are attracting consumers with competitive pricing in the mid- and low-end markets.
AI talent drain crisis: Core team members have been poached by Meta and OpenAI, and the head of the foundational model has departed, challenging technological leadership.
💰 IV. Profitability Recovery and Valuation Game
Gross Margin Pressure Path:
Cost: Tariffs are driving up component costs, while US manufacturing capital expenditures are surging, putting pressure on free cash flow.
Revenue: Services growth (App Store, Apple Music) will partially offset the decline in hardware profits, but will require higher-than-expected AI subscription conversion rates.
Valuation Divergence:
The current P/E ratio is approximately 33.5x, a three-year high. Market expectations for a $4 trillion market cap are divided:
Optimists: Target price is expected to be between $300 and $325, driven by a surge in AI device replacements and a surge in services revenue.
Conservatives: With tariff costs still unresolved and competition intensifying, the valuation needs to fall back to 25x (corresponding to $250-280).
📊 V. Technical Trends and Investment Strategy
Key Price Ranges and Catalysts:
Direction Trigger Condition Target Price
Upward Breakout: Q3 revenue exceeds 24.7 billion yuan + AI subscription rate jumps; tariff exemptions implemented. $300-325
Range-bound fluctuation: New phone sales meet expectations; supply chain costs are manageable. $280-300
Deep Pullback: Weak iPhone demand; AI commercialization delayed; full tariff pass-through. $250-280
Trading Recommendations:
✅ Short-term: Watch for opportunities to invest in a pullback to $280-290 after the earnings report, capitalizing on the expected September product launch.
✅ Medium-term: Maintain a core position (50%) and allocate 30% to AI technology deployment milestones (such as November's AI security certification). Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool that excels in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. You can see more news and no longer need multiple platforms to play. It's very convenient and practical.
⚠️ Risk Hedging: Take partial profits if it breaks through $300, and stop losses if it falls below $280 and wait and see.
💎 Conclusion: AI becomes king, cost becomes the enemy.
In the second half of 2025, Apple will be at a critical turning point between technological revolution and cost dilemma:
Breaking Point: The AI replacement wave activates demand + local manufacturing reduces costs and increases efficiency → stock price hits $300-325; Biya is still very useful.
Risk Point: Slow supply chain migration + competitors grab market share → valuation falls back to the $250-280 range.
Holding Strategy:
Stick to core AI technology barriers, be wary of amplified volatility before tariff costs are cleared. Keep a close eye on three key milestones:
1️⃣ September new product pricing and pre-order data;
2️⃣ Q3 financial report gross profit margin guidance;
3️⃣ November FSD road test safety certification progress.