Another warning on warming
Context:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published a special report on global warming of 1.5 ° C compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
The IPCC explains in detail how it is necessary to strengthen the global response to climate change in the broader context of sustainable development and ongoing efforts to eradicate poverty.
The impacts of the 1.5 ° C warming and the possible development paths through which the world could pass are its main objective.
In 2015, during the climate conference in Paris, the world community concluded a pact to continue efforts to limit the warming to less than 1.5 ° C, half a degree compared to the previous year. Previous objective of 2 ° C.
With the increase of extreme events and the very survival of the small islands in play, the lower limit was received with surprise and enthusiasm.
Why there is so much concern between 1.5°C and 2°C:
For most people, the difference between 1.5 ° C and 2 ° C may seem trivial when daily temperatures fluctuate much more widely.
However, reference is made to global average temperatures. Different regions of the earth will be heated at different speeds. For example, the Arctic is already warming several times faster than the global average.
According to these reports, if the temperature exceeds 2 ° C, the effects of climate change could be irreversible and catastrophic.
Mainly, small island nations and less developed nations are likely to suffer more and therefore have asked for the goal of limiting the temperature rise, even to 1.5 ° C.
Sea level is expected to increase by an average of about 50 cm by 2100, when the world will warm up by 2 ° C.
But beyond 2100, the general propensity for a much greater increase in sea level is greater in the world of 2 ° C.
Risks to food security, health, fresh water, human security, livelihoods and economic growth are already increasing and will worsen in a world at 2 ° C.
The number of people exposed to complex and compound risks will also increase, most of the poorest countries in Asia and Africa will be the most affected.
This requires a massive deployment of financial and technological resources.
If countries do not react aggressively against climate change, average global temperatures, which have already exceeded 1 ° C, should cross the 1.5 ° C mark in 2040.
The window of opportunity to act is very small and closes quickly.
Several mitigation pathways to achieve these reductions and all of them incorporate different levels of CO2 removal:
There are many synergies between achieving mitigation goals and achieving sustainable development goals.
To remain below 1.5 ° C, the transitions required by energy systems and human societies, in land use, transport and infrastructure, are expected to be rapid and of unprecedented scale with reductions in energy efficiency. emissions.
How will the remaining carbon budget, which is the space available in the atmosphere to contain more CO2, be shared between the different countries?
This is a difficult question to address. The United States also reiterated its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. It has been reported, for example, that EE. UU They obstructed the deliberations of the recent meeting to determine the final text of this IPCC report.
US UU Contributions And Other Rich Countries To The Green Climate Fund And Other Financing Mechanisms For Mitigation And Adaptation Are Essential Even For Achieving The Goals Of The National Defined Contribution Commitments That Each Country Needs took before the Paris conference.
Even if all the NDCs are implemented, the world should warm up to more than 3 ° C.
The IPCC report identifies two main strategies.
The first stabilizes the global temperature around 5 ° C with a limited overrun and
The second allows temperatures to temporarily exceed 1.5 ° C before going back down. The consequences of temporary overruns would have more serious consequences than the first approach.
To limit the warming to around 1.5 ° C with zero or no surplus, it is expected that the global net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will decrease by approximately 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach a zero mid-year network. century.
To limit warming to the goal of reducing temperature, the world needs "rapid and profound" changes in energy systems, land use, urban and industrial design, transportation and the use of buildings. .
The emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, will also decrease. Getting away quickly from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas could be three to four times more expensive than the less ambitious target, but it would remove air from other pollutants.
And this would have the advantage of avoiding more than 100 million premature deaths during this century, it is also mentioned in the IPCC report.
In comparison, to limit the heating to just under 2 ° C, the necessary reductions are around 20% by 2030 and reach a net zero around 2075.
Conclusion:
The IPCC report states that global warming should reach 1.5 ° C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues at the same rate.
Disputes over the implementation of the Paris Agreement become relations between rich countries, emerging rights and less developed countries.
For more information, see "Work Plan" in the future. unprecedented ".
This special report discusses options for the global community of nations, the next conference of the parties.
Everyone will have to decide whether to play a global political role for their own interests and to work together to protect the world and its systems as a whole. The way forward does not offer simple or easy solutions.