Is the Next Bitcoin Bull Supercycle Already Here, or Is the Market Setting Up for a Major Correction First?
Bitcoin may be positioned in a long, strong bull cycle; or more likely, the market will experience a severe retreat before the next true uptrend starts: when I reflect on Bitcoin now I ask myself, are we in a long, strong bull cycle or is the market more apt to go into a sharp correction before the next true uptrend doesn't start? Both scenarios are believable. In this essay, I examine both sides of the evidence- I tell you what I incline to, with the dangers of doing so.
To begin with, why do we have reason to think that a supercycle is already in play? A supercycle is one which is an extremely long-lasting bull run that goes beyond conventional cycles. Other analysts suppose that Bitcoin is losing its relationship with the old four-year halving cycles and getting more closely associated with macro forces such as liquidity, institutional money and inflation. Indicatively, bull run is projected by Bernstein analysts to go through 2027 with price targets of between 150,000 and 200,000.
They claim that adoption at the institutional level and positive policy in the U.S. could drive additional capital towards crypto. In addition, according to on-chain data, long-term holders made significant gains (3.4 million BTC) recently, which indicates that key players are optimistic about the further upside. Lastly, it is evident that the past corrections were usually above 70% indicating that Bitcoin is volatile- and a supercycle would have to fill in those troughs.
Still, however, the evidence in favour of a big correction is also good. Exhaustion is one of the red flags: There has been a decrease in the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs lately, the cost basis of short-term holders is near $111,000. That implies that a large number of buyers are sensitive to price reduction losses.
In addition, other technical analysts note that upward momentum has since faltered since June, and hence future gains may not be as sustainable in the short run. One more argument: it has been predicted that Bitcoin will be corrected several times (around 20 percent) before reaching new heights. Thus we may get a pullback or tightening or sideways movement before any tremendous bull run begins again.
I consider historical cycles also. Deep crashes followed the past bull runs in Bitcoin. Above 70 percent corrections were made in five epic cycles. It is not unlikely, according to history, that a sharp correction will occur. However, history is not necessarily the destiny, new (regulated ETFs, institutions, macro drivers) factors could alter behavior.
So where do I stand? I inclined to the hybrid case: I believe that moderate correction or consolidation now can happen, but will precondition a supercycle in the future. That is, I do not think that the bull supercycle is mature at the moment. Market structure appears to be far fetched. I am hoping a 15-25% drop may occur, and weaker hands will be out and be ready to make the next leg up. Then new liquidity and new confidence may propel the cycle upwards.
To sum up, the thesis according to which the recent Bitcoin bull supercycle is already present is valid. But also, there are indicators of fatigue, decelerating trends and history that the market can establish a significant correction first. I am sure the correction will follow shortly, yet it will never kill the supercycle idea, it will only make it stronger in the long term.