SteemitCryptoAcademy-Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Analysis - May 03, 2025 - Analysis of the dominance of Bitcoin (BTC.D) Between 2017-2025
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Hello steemians,
The graph presented illustrates in a synthetic but very revealing manner the evolution of the dominance of Bitcoin (BTC.D) from the year 2017 until May 2025, by highlighting the pivotal points of previous market cycles and their direct relationship with the explosion of altcoins, it is a strategic indicator which makes it possible to measure the share of the capitalization of Bitcoin in relation to the entire cryptocurrency market, and whose variations can announce massive movements of liquidity towards alternative assets.
In 2017, the dominance of Bitcoin, initially above 70%, fell violently in the space of three months to reach a floor level of around 35%, which coincided with the spectacular surge in altcoins, notably Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin, which experienced exponential growth sometimes exceeding 5000%, this bullish cycle of altcoins, often described as “ALT season”, was triggered by an obvious rotation of capital since Bitcoin towards lower capitalization cryptocurrencies, with a speculative appetite driven by the rise of ICOs and widespread euphoria on the market.
A very similar phenomenon occurred again in the first half of 2021, when Bitcoin's dominance fell from around 73% to less than 40% in four months, once again favoring an explosion of altcoins such as Solana, Cardano, Binance Coin or Polkadot, which all reached their historic highs in this same period. Again, this loss of dominance reflected a redistribution of investments, with a strong enthusiasm for alternative projects supported by innovations in of DeFi, NFT and scalability.
In May 2025, we find ourselves in a completely different configuration, but nevertheless potentially similar in terms of anticipated dynamics, the dominance of Bitcoin has experienced a continuous rise since its low point of 2022, located around 39%, to reach today a level of 64.84%, in the immediate vicinity of a critical technical resistance zone estimated at 66.18%, this resistance constitutes a symbolic ceiling already tested in the past, and its capacity to reject or not the current progression of the dominance will most likely condition the future distribution of investment flows between Bitcoin and altcoins.
It should be noted that the upward movement of dominance for more than ten consecutive quarters has still not shown clear signs of reversal, which explains why altcoins have not yet started their expected expansion phase, nevertheless, intermediate support levels such as 63.40%, 60.35% and 56.17% could constitute trigger thresholds in the event of a correction, and allow capital to migrate towards alternative assets as has happened, produced during previous cycles.
Thus, through a comparative reading, we observe that the fall in the dominance of Bitcoin has systematically coincided with the triggering of major bullish cycles on altcoins, with increases of between 1000% and 5000% in 2017, and between 300% and 2500% in 2021, while in 2025, this phase of expansion has not yet been initiated, probably in Due to the still high dominance of Bitcoin which retains a large part of the total market capitalization, if the dominance were to fall below 60%, this would historically constitute a very strong technical signal to anticipate a change in cycle favorable to altcoins.
Comparative Cycle Summary
| Year | BTC.D (start) | BTC.D (end) | Duration | ALT Season confirmed | Altcoin bull run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 71% | 35% | 3 months | ✅ Yes | +1000 to +5000% |
| 2021 | 73% | 39% | 4 months | ✅ Yes | +300 to +2500% |
| 2025 | 39% → 64.84% (ongoing) | ? | 2-year bull run | ❌ Not yet | ↗️ Pending |
In short, the analysis of this graph reveals that the market is today in a potential transition phase, marked by a generalized expectation of a trend reversal in the dominance of Bitcoin, a sine qua non condition for the emergence of a new "altseason", which gives this situation major strategic importance for investors attentive to the structural cycles of the cryptocurrency market.
Warm regards,
@kouba01 (Steem Representative)
