集装箱卡车藏杀机，FPV无人机奇袭俄战略轰炸机

川普这个人不管怎么说，有一点还是挺不错的：他吹出去的牛，不管做不做得到，都会努力去做，挺有行动力的一个人。比如他在竞选总统的时候，吹牛说他可以在一天之内就结束俄乌战争。当然，这个牛现在已经吹破了——他上任已经快半年了，俄乌之间并没有实现停火。但不管怎样，在他的威逼利诱之下，双方在打了三年多之后，终于开始和谈，进行接触和谈判了。

尽管双方的要价还相差很远，但就在这个时候，乌克兰突然搞了一波大的。在6月2日（儿童节过后一天），乌克兰给俄罗斯送来了一个大礼：经过长达一年半的精心策划，乌克兰特工在俄罗斯空军基地的眼皮底下，从集装箱卡车中放飞无人机，成功突袭了位于俄罗斯领土腹地的战略轰炸机空军基地。其中，最远的一个基地甚至临近西伯利亚的贝加尔湖。

根据部分消息来源的说法，这一次袭击击毁了30至40架俄罗斯战略轰炸机。此外，乌克兰还放出了一段用于袭击的FPV无人机录下的画面，画面显示：跑道两旁停着一整排图-95“熊”式战略轰炸机，一架接一架地发生爆炸。

虽然关注俄乌战争好几年了，对双方夸张的宣传已经习以为常（一边天天都在大捷，一边却总是宣称毫无损失），所以30至40架的战果可能要打个问号。但是不管怎么看，从放出的攻击视频来看，俄罗斯这次损失十几架轰炸机应该是差不多的——这也是非常沉重的打击了。很多网友把这称作俄罗斯的“珍珠港事件”。

而且，俄罗斯这些战略轰炸机大都是继承自冷战时期的苏联遗产。由于苏联解体后，原有的国营企业要么被分散到其他加盟共和国，要么破产倒闭，因此已经无法再生产其中的大部分机型。所以，这个损失是无法弥补的。

更重要的是，这次突袭清晰地揭示了两点：

第一，俄罗斯大量继承自苏联时代的武器装备，以及建立在这些武器装备之上的战法，已经完全不能适应现代条件下的战争了。

其实从这个意义上来说，炸掉这些老旧战略轰炸机队，某种程度上还是在帮助俄罗斯实现军事现代化转型，使其不必再在这些老古董身上浪费军事资源了。

当然，这次行动成功归成功，但这种攻击形式是防不胜防的。不过这也是俄罗斯这个国家的老传统了——早在一战的时候，各国已经进入了工业化战争时代，机枪、大炮，以及战争后期出现的坦克和飞机，这些才是新的战争模式和趋势；而俄罗斯却还在固守拿破仑时代的战争思想，将很多资源用来建设以他们引以为傲的哥萨克骑兵为模板的骑兵部队。

第二点，普京发动乌克兰战争的公开理由，其实也因这场袭击而站不住脚了。俄罗斯和乌克兰开战的理由，就是要阻止乌克兰加入北约。如果乌克兰加入北约，北约的武器就可以将莫斯科等重要城市纳入射程。也就是说，俄罗斯需要乌克兰充当自己的缓冲区——这完全是一种过时的军事思想。

而这次袭击成功，给予俄罗斯战略空军部队以重创。其所使用的武器，并非常规导弹，而是经过改装的民用FPV无人机；运输这些无人机的载体，完全是俄罗斯国内自己的物流系统——集装箱卡车。

可以说，这种方式类似于人体内的寄生虫或癌细胞：它们利用人体正常机制来获取营养并转移。这种攻击方式防不胜防。若要抵御此类威胁，缓冲区根本无效，唯有像以前的清王朝那样闭关锁国才可能有效。但这样做的代价就是与世界隔绝，在世界发展的潮流中逐渐落伍。

所以，俄罗斯要获得真正的安全，还是要搞好和邻国的关系。

---

No matter how you look at it, there is one thing about Trump that is quite good: He always strives to do his best regardless of whether he can achieve it or not. He is a very proactive person. For instance, when he was running for president, he boasted that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war within one day. Of course, this bull has now blown out - he has been in office for nearly half a year, but a ceasefire has not been achieved between Russia and Ukraine. But in any case, under his coercion and inducement, after more than three years of fighting, the two sides finally began peace talks, contacts and negotiations.

Although the asking prices of the two sides were still far apart, it was at this very moment that Ukraine suddenly made a big move. On June 2nd (the day after Children's Day), Ukraine presented a big gift to Russia: After a year and a half of meticulous planning, Ukrainian agents, right under the nose of a Russian air base, launched a drone from a container truck and successfully raided a strategic bomber air base located deep in Russian territory. Among them, the farthest base is even close to Lake Baikal in Siberia.

According to some sources, this attack destroyed 30 to 40 Russian strategic bombers. In addition, Ukraine also released a video recorded by an FPV drone used for the attack. The video showed that a whole row of Tu-95 "Bear" strategic bombers were parked on both sides of the runway, exploding one after another.

Although I have been following the Russia-Ukraine war for several years and have become accustomed to the exaggerated propaganda of both sides (one side is achieving major victories every day, while the other always claims no losses), the results of 30 to 40 aircraft may be questionable. However, no matter how you look at it, judging from the attack videos released, Russia's loss of over a dozen bombers this time should be about the same - this is also a very heavy blow. Many netizens refer to this as the "Pearl Harbor Incident" of Russia.

Moreover, most of these strategic bombers of Russia are inherited from the Soviet Union during the Cold War era. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the original state-owned enterprises were either dispersed to other constituent republics or went bankrupt and closed down. As a result, most of these models could no longer be produced. So, this loss is irreparable.

More importantly, this raid clearly revealed two points:

First, a large number of weapons and equipment inherited by Russia from the Soviet era, as well as the combat methods based on these weapons and equipment, are completely unable to adapt to modern warfare conditions.

In this sense, to some extent, blowing up these old strategic bomber fleets is still helping Russia achieve its military modernization transformation, so that it no longer has to waste military resources on these antiques.

Sure, although this operation was successful, this form of attack is hard to guard against. However, this is also an old tradition of the country of Russia - as early as World War I, countries had entered the era of industrial warfare. Machine guns, cannons, as well as tanks and aircraft that emerged in the later stage of the war, these were the new patterns and trends of warfare. However, Russia is still adhering to the war ideology of the Napoleonic era and has devoted many resources to building cavalry units modeled after the Cossack cavalry they are proud of.

Secondly, the public reason given by Putin for launching the war in Ukraine has actually become untenable due to this attack. The reason why Russia and Ukraine went to war is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. If Ukraine joins NATO, NATO's weapons can bring important cities such as Moscow within range. That is to say, Russia needs Ukraine to act as its buffer zone - this is completely an outdated military ideology.

The success of this attack dealt a heavy blow to the Russian strategic Air Force. The weapons it uses are not conventional missiles but modified civilian FPV unmanned aerial vehicles. The carriers for transporting these drones are entirely Russia's own domestic logistics system - container trucks.

It can be said that this approach is similar to parasites or cancer cells in the human body: they use the body's normal mechanisms to obtain nutrients and metastasize. This kind of attack method is hard to guard against. If such threats are to be resisted, buffer zones are simply ineffective. Only by closing the country to the outside world like the previous Qing Dynasty could it be effective. But the price of doing so is to be isolated from the world and gradually fall behind in the trend of world development.

Therefore, for Russia to achieve true security, it still needs to maintain good relations with its neighboring countries.