抵抗之弧的裂痕：利益撕裂如何导致伊朗军事困局

伊朗与以色列的冲突已持续数日。此前分析指出，与以色列并不接壤的伊朗之所以敌视以色列，很大程度上是为了争取什叶派在伊斯兰教中的正统地位，提升政权合法性，最终目的仍是巩固国内统治。

自去年哈马斯针对以色列发动大规模恐怖袭击以来，以色列与伊朗关系已高度紧张。以色列对伊朗扶持的哈马斯、真主党及胡塞武装等势力重拳出击——其中实力最强的“抵抗之弧”核心力量真主党也遭到猛烈打击。以色列采取情报支援下的精准斩首策略，而伊朗仅以象征性报复回应。可见其“反以反美”更多是口号，根本目标仍是维持国内统治。

尽管伊朗作为“抵抗之弧”的后台，实力应强于胡塞武装、真主党和哈马斯等盟友，但此次冲突中以色列完全占据先机。伊朗革命卫队高层遭斩首，反击效果乏善可陈，甚至不及哈马斯突袭造成的破坏。究其原因，旁观者洞若观火：伊朗内部已被渗透得千疮百孔，对以色列近乎单向透明。去年哈马斯最高领导人在伊朗境内遭以色列暗杀，已暴露这一问题，而伊朗政权一年多未能清除内鬼，实属异常。

深入了解伊朗的观察人士指出，这种现象根源在于伊朗国内从政权到社会的深度撕裂：一是普遍存在的贫富差距；二是城乡对立——保守的乡村地区是神权统治根基，而开放的城市居民对政权不满加剧；三是神权与世俗势力的根本性分裂。这些分裂本质皆是利益冲突的体现。

此次斩首行动中损失最重的伊斯兰革命卫队，正是这种矛盾的缩影。伊斯兰革命后，前巴列维王朝军队虽被留用，却因非革命嫡系而始终遭猜忌。为掌控枪杆子，政权另建伊斯兰革命卫队，并赋予其向外输出革命的任务。该部队运作相当成功，例如在美国陷入伊拉克泥潭后，革命卫队成功将其转化为什叶派“抵抗之弧”的重要支点。

此类行动需巨额资金支撑，革命卫队因此深度介入商业领域。其高层多为身着军装的富豪商人，引发政府其他派系强烈不满。若能借以色列或美国之手清除这些既得利益者，其他势力便可重新分配利益、扭转地位。这正是伊朗内鬼层出不穷、防不胜防的核心症结之一。

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The conflict between Iran and Israel has been going on for several days. Previous analysis pointed out that Iran, which does not border Israel, is hostile to Israel to a large extent to fight for the legitimacy of Shiites in Islam and enhance the legitimacy of the regime, with the ultimate goal of consolidating domestic rule.

Relations between Israel and Iran have been highly strained since Hamas launched a large-scale terrorist attack against Israel last year. Israel has struck hard at Iranian-backed forces such as Hamas, Allah and the Houthis – including Allah, the core of the Arc of Resistance. Israel has adopted a precision decapitation strategy supported by intelligence, while Iran has responded with only symbolic retaliation. It can be seen that "anti-Israel and anti-American" is more of a slogan, and its fundamental goal is still to maintain domestic rule.

Although Iran, as the backstage of the "arc of resistance", should be stronger than allies such as the Houthis, Allah, and Hamas, Israel has a clear advantage in this conflict. The decapitation of Iran's top ranks and the effectiveness of the counterattack were lackluster, not as damaging as the Hamas raids. The reason for this is that the onlookers are observant: Iran has been infiltrated and almost one-way transparent to Israel. The assassination of Hamas's supreme leader in Iran last year by Israel has exposed the problem, and the Iranian regime's failure to purge it for more than a year is unusual.

Observers with deep knowledge of Iran point out that the root cause of this phenomenon lies in the deep rift between the regime and society in Iran: first, the widespread gap between the rich and the poor; The second is the rural-urban dichotomy – conservative rural areas are the foundation of theocracy, while open urban residents are increasingly dissatisfied with the regime; The third is the fundamental split between theocracy and secular forces. The nature of these divisions is a manifestation of a conflict of interest.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which suffered the heaviest losses in this beheading operation, is the epitome of this contradiction. After the Islamic Revolution, the former Pahlavi army was retained, but it was always viewed with suspicion because it was not a revolutionary lineage. In order to control the barrel of the gun, the regime established the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and gave it the task of exporting revolution to the outside world. The unit operated quite successfully, for example, after the United States got bogged down in Iraq, the Revolutionary Guards managed to transform it into an important fulcrum of the Shiite "arc of resistance".

Such operations require huge sums of money, which has led the Revolutionary Guards to become deeply involved in the business sector. Most of its top leaders are wealthy businessmen in military uniforms, which has aroused strong resentment from other factions in the government. If these vested interests can be eliminated through the hands of Israel or the United States, other forces can redistribute their interests and reverse their positions. This is one of the core cruxes of Iran's endless internal demons that cannot be prevented.