美元霸权衰落的真相：特朗普如何意外削弱美国经济实力？

接着昨天的话题说。昨天提到，号称要让美国再次伟大的川普，在其第二次就任美国总统时提出的各项政策，反而削弱了美元的霸权地位。结果，市场也表现得和预料的一样，特别是国债市场纷纷暴跌，使得他不得不寻求挽救。反而让人看穿了他虚张声势的底气底牌。所以贸易战、关税战争这张牌估计以后也不好用了。

但是，特朗普的死忠粉丝们对川普有着宗教般的狂热崇拜。也别说，川普的基本盘中，很大一部分就是基督教原教旨主义者。他们默认他做的一切都是对的，是他计划的一部分，他是在下普通人不理解的四维象棋。

在油管等平台上有许多自媒体有条理地分析，川普的计划到底是什么？他们确实认为颠覆美元的货币霸主地位是川普计划的一部分。他们是这样分析的：川普的真正目标是让美国再次伟大，指的是让制造业回归美国，让中产阶级重新壮大。而之所以现在美国制造业空心化并被中国超越，最主要的原因就是美元的世界货币地位，这使得其他国家都想拥有美元，而获得美元的唯一方式就是生产产品卖给美国人。长此以往，美国自然就不需要发展自己的产业，只需要不断印钱就可以了。这样，产业自然转移到中国等其他国家去了。

所以，搞垮美元也是让制造业回归美国的必要一步。同样，加征关税后，外国产品价格必然上涨。这样，那些本来没有竞争力的美国产品也变有竞争力了，从而促进产业的回归。这些解释在逻辑上是自洽的。只是，从川普的种种言行来看，他的逻辑远不如他的辩护者那样连贯和一致。

他一边对外国商品加征关税，一边还要安抚自己选民，说这些关税都是外国人支付的。但是按照以上逻辑，加征关税是要抬高外国商品价格，这无疑增加了民众的生活成本。普通民众自然会想：为什么同样商品比要付更多钱？钱到底被谁赚走了？是不是很快就想到政府增加的关税收入呢？

因此，就在最近，川普对沃尔玛发出威胁，警告它不要涨价。因为只要沃尔玛商品一涨价，稍微有点思考能力的民众就意识到关税到底是谁支付了，谁拿走了。然而，诚信相信特朗普的人在绝对数量上很大，但总体上应该还是少数。那么他既加征关税，又不让沃尔玛涨价商品，那后怎么样提高美国产品竞争力？怎样促使制造业回流美国呢？

其实，纵观特朗普的商业经历可发现，他的整个商业生涯，最擅长就是包装和营销，而非真正的创新和经营。也许他当总统也采取一样思路：只在乎塑造人设，而不管事情逻辑。塑造自己言出必行、兑现承诺的人设，而不管真正背后运作的逻辑。

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Let's continue from yesterday's topic. Yesterday, it was mentioned that Trump, who claimed to make America great again, proposed various policies during his second term as the president of the United States, which instead weakened the hegemonic position of the US dollar. As a result, the market performed as expected, especially the Treasury bond market plunged one after another, forcing him to seek rescue. On the contrary, it allowed people to see through his bold and confident card of bluffing. So the cards of trade wars and tariff wars are probably not useful in the future either.

However, Trump's die-hard fans have a religious-like fanatical worship of Trump. It's not true that a large part of Trump's base is Christian fundamentalists. They tacitly accepted that everything he did was right and was part of his plan. He was playing four-dimensional chess that ordinary people couldn't understand.

On platforms like YouTube, there are many self-media outlets systematically analyzing what Trump's plan actually is. They do think that overthrowing the currency hegemony of the US dollar is part of Trump's plan. This is how they analyzed it: Trump's true goal is to make America great again, which means bringing manufacturing back to the United States and reexpanding the middle class. The main reason why the manufacturing industry in the United States is now hollowed out and surpassed by China is the world currency status of the US dollar. This makes other countries want to own the US dollar, and the only way to obtain the US dollar is to produce products and sell them to Americans. If this goes on for a long time, the United States will naturally no longer need to develop its own industries; it will only need to keep printing money. In this way, the industry naturally transferred to other countries such as China.

Therefore, undermining the US dollar is also a necessary step for bringing manufacturing back to the United States. Similarly, after the imposition of additional tariffs, the prices of foreign products are bound to rise. In this way, those originally uncompetitive American products have also become competitive, thereby promoting the return of the industry. These explanations are logically consistent. However, judging from Trump's various words and deeds, his logic is far less coherent and consistent than that of his defenders.

While imposing tariffs on foreign goods, he also has to reassure his voters that these tariffs are all paid by foreigners. However, according to the above logic, imposing additional tariffs is intended to raise the prices of foreign goods, which undoubtedly increases the living costs of the people. Ordinary people naturally wonder: Why do we have to pay more for the same goods? Who on earth made the money? Did you soon think of the increased tariff revenue from the government?

Therefore, just recently, Trump threatened Walmart, warning it not to raise prices. Because as soon as Walmart's goods increase in price, people with a little thinking ability will realize who pays the tariffs and who takes them. However, the number of people who sincerely believe in Trump is large in absolute terms, but on the whole, they should still be in the minority. So if he imposes tariffs while preventing Walmart from raising the prices of its goods, then how can the competitiveness of American products be enhanced? How to promote the return of manufacturing to the United States?

In fact, looking at Trump's business experience throughout his entire career, it can be found that his greatest forte has been packaging and marketing rather than true innovation and management. Perhaps when he was president, he also adopted the same train of thought: only caring about shaping his image, regardless of the logic of things. Shape an image of oneself as someone who always keeps one's word and fulfills promises, regardless of the underlying logic behind it.