Samson Mow warns: The hidden risk of corporate treasuries in Bitcoin
Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and former CSO of Blockstream, has warned about the rise of corporate treasuries incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, highlighting several key risks:
⚠️ 1. Capital erosion due to volatility
According to VanEck, a Bitcoin-based treasury strategy can lead to capital erosion. The case of Semler Scientific illustrates this: even with the BTC price rising, its stock fell more than 45% because investors squeezed the company, valuing its shares below the Bitcoin equivalent it held.
- This situation makes it difficult for the company to raise capital through share issuance at a good price, causing a downward spiral in valuation and liquidity.
🌐 2. Organizational Structure and Overconfidence Risk
Mow, inspired by MicroStrategy, has suggested the creation of a “Bitcoin treasury company”, warning of the dangers of adopting without rigorous controls.
- VanEck emphasizes that executives can fall into overconfidence and herd behavior without implementing stress tests or rigorous models that consider extreme risk factors in the BTC price.
🏦 3. Debate over Corporate vs. Sovereign Treasuries
Mow also highlights that countries and companies are beginning to consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. According to his tweets, the US and some states (Arizona, New Hampshire) are studying or implementing official BTC reserves; In addition, emerging nations and MicroStrategy-style corporations are promoting these strategies.
✅ Samson Mow's Conclusion
- He sees clear trends toward institutional adoption: companies with balance sheets in BTC, ETFs, state reserves ([reddit.com][4]).
- But he warns of the danger of accumulating volatile assets without controls: it can lead to capital erosion, financing difficulties, and exposure to market shocks.
💡 Recommendations for companies interested in BTC in treasury:
- Stress tests of extreme scenarios (gross increases, abrupt decreases).
- Establish exposure limits, for example, reserving only a fixed % of the balance sheet.
- Implement transparent reporting, including daily valuation and comparisons with liabilities.
- Evaluate hedging tools (derivatives, insurance) to mitigate risk tails.
